Odisha logs new single-day high, says Covid 2nd wave may peak by May 1st week

Dr Mohanty’s prediction coincides with the state reporting a record 4,851 new cases in a 24 hours period, taking the active Covid cases to 30,927.

The Odisha government on Wednesday hoped that the second wave of Covid-19 in the state will start ebbing after peaking between the end of April and first week of May even as the state hit a new record of 6,164 cases in a single day. One of the top most medical officers, however, ruled out any crisis, saying the state was well prepared.

Odisha may not be finding all its infected persons due to poor ratio of RT-PCR tests to the total number of tests done, said an expert.

“The peak has already started in Maharashtra while Delhi and other states might see the climax by last week of April and in some states, it will (be) extended to May. In Odisha too, the peak might come between the end of April and first week of May. After that, the cases will decrease naturally at the same pace they are rising now,” said Dr CBK Mohanty, director of medical education and training.

Dr Mohanty’s prediction coincides with the state reporting a record 6,164 new cases in a 24 hour period, taking the active Covid cases to 30,927. The previous single-day spike of 4,851 cases was recorded on April 21. Currently, with 14.34 test positivity rate (TPR) reported on Thursday and reproductive number (R0) at 2.39, officials said cases were doubling every five days while the TPR was doubling every 6 days.

TPR is the ratio of tests performed to cases confirmed and the R0 or the reproductive number is an indication of the transmissibility of a virus, representing the average number of new infections generated by an infectious person. For R0 > 1, the number infected is likely to increase, and for R0 < 1, transmission is likely to die out.

Renowned microbiologist Dr TM Mohapatra, who earlier worked with the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), also agreed that the peak may come by the end of May first week or early second week. “In Odisha, the infections came from neighbouring Chhattisgarh and now migrant workers from Maharashtra and Delhi would bring more infections. I would not be surprised if the daily surge reaches 10,000 a day,” he said.

Mohapatra however said Odisha may not be finding all its infected persons due to poor ratio of RT-PCR tests to the total number of tests done. “ICMR says states should conduct 70% of the tests through RT-PCR while in Odisha it is barely touching 40 per cent.”

Dr Mohanty however said Odisha was prepared for the challenge presented by the second wave. “There is no shortage of oxygen stock for the infected in Odisha so far. Among the available beds at 70 dedicated Covid care hospitals in the state, only 26% general beds have been used. Similarly, only 14.18% intensive care units and 10% ventilators, respectively are in use now,” he said.

Mohanty said Odisha has adequate medical oxygen suppliers which can meet the requirement easily. “During the first wave, the consumption of oxygen was 28 to 30 metric tonnes per day in the state. We do not see any shortage of oxygen supply,” he said.

The All India Institute of Medical Sciences in Bhubaneswar decided to temporarily close its walk-in OPD services from April 26 in view of the sharp rise in Covid-19 cases among many of its staffers. The hospital however said day care services, radiotherapy, dialysis, trauma and emergency, life-saving surgery and immunization for old registered patients would continue.

Meanwhile, members of local chamber of commerce, lawyers’ association, private bus union and leaders of various political parties in Raighar block of Nabarangpur district unanimously declared a five-day local shutdown on their own. Raighar chamber of commerce president Prasanta Panigrahi said the shutdown was announced since the block shares borders with Covid hotspot Chhattisgarh.

Panigrahi said during the shutdown, all government and private institutions will remain closed. In the bordering Chandahandi block too, locals have closed markets in a bid to stem the spread of infections.