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Pledges ‘nowhere near’ enough to meet Paris Agreement goals: UN report
The report considers the total commitments – also known as the Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs – by 193 countries on how they plan to reduce planet-warming emissions
The combined pledges made by countries to fight the climate crisis remains insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to below 2°C, a new United Nations report released on Wednesday has found.
The report considers the total (and most recent) commitments – also known as the Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs – by 193 countries on how they plan to reduce planet-warming emissions. The assessment found that while countries have begun bending the curve of the warming trajectory, the planet was still on course for around 2.5°C rise in average temperatures by the end of the century.
The current commitments, a statement by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) said, will increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels, but this number is lower than what a similar assessment found last year, when emissions were on path to exceed the 2010 levels by 13.7%.
“The downward trend in emissions expected by 2030 shows that nations have made some progress this year,” said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change. “But the science is clear and so are our climate goals under the Paris Agreement. We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5°C world. To keep this goal alive, national governments need to strengthen their climate action plans now and implement them in the next eight years.”
The report is a crucial assessment ahead of the UN Climate Change negotiations (COP27) to be held in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt next month.
Among the 193 parties considered, the analysis also covered 24 updated or new NDCs submitted after the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26) last year, up until September 23, 2022, including that of India’s. Taken together, the plans cover 94.9% of total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019, according to UNFCCC.
Separately, a new report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday states that atmospheric levels of the three main greenhouse gases — carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide (NO) — all reached record highs in 2021.
According to the report, between 1990 and 2021, the warming effect on the climate (known as radiative forcing) by greenhouse gases rose by nearly 50%, with carbon dioxide accounting for about 80% of this increase.
Carbon dioxide concentrations in 2021 were 415.7 parts per million (ppm), methane at 1,908 parts per billion (ppb) and nitrous oxide at 334.5 ppb, stated the report. These values constitute, respectively, 149%, 262% and 124% of pre-industrial levels— before human activities started disrupting natural equilibrium of these gases in the atmosphere.
India’s new NDC has two broad quantifiable goals– to reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030, from 2005 level, and to achieve about 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.
The second quantifiable goal is conditional, to be implemented with the help of transfer of technology and low-cost international finance including from Green Climate Fund (GCF), India stated. In the Paris Agreement, rich countries, which have historically contributed the vast majority of emissions till now, committed to helping poorer nations to transition to cleaner energy and technologies, providing funding of $100 billion a year from 2020, which is yet to materialise.
India’s NDC, submitted in August, also identify a long-term goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2070 based on the funding conditions being fulfilled.
IPCC said earlier this year that CO2 emissions needed to be cut 43% by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels.
At the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26) last year, all countries agreed to revisit and strengthen their climate plans. The Glasgow Pact had said that it “urges Parties that have not yet communicated new or updated nationally determined contributions to do so as soon as possible in advance of the fourth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement…”
“The fact that only 24 new or updated climate plans have been submitted since COP26 is disappointing. Government decisions and actions must reflect the level of urgency, the gravity of the threats we are facing, and the shortness of the time we have remaining to avoid the devastating consequences of runaway climate change,” the statement by UNFCCC said while underlining that 169 countries have not updated their plans this year.
During a press briefing ahead of the report release Steill noted that some developed countries had backtracked on their climate commitments last year. This was mainly seen in an increase in their fossil fuel consumption and shoring up of their energy security needs through investment in fossil fuels. “That’s the negative but on the positive side investments in renewable energy have also gone up which indicates that energy transition is happening,” he said.
Most of the countries that submitted new or updated NDCs have strengthened their commitment to reducing or limiting greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 and/or 2030, demonstrating increased ambition in addressing climate change.
A second UN Climate Change report on long-term low-emission development strategies submitted by 62 parties on Wednesday indicated that these countries’ greenhouse gas emissions could be roughly 68% lower in 2050 than in 2019 if all long-term strategies are fully implemented on time.
The synthesis report notes, however, that many net-zero targets remain uncertain and postpone into the future critical action that needs to take place now. Ambitious climate action before 2030 is urgently needed to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.
If average temperatures exceed 2°C, compared to pre-industrial levels, the world will face fiercer storms, higher seas, melting ice and more people dying from heat. In 2018, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) said the difference between limiting the rise by an additional 0.5°C over the 2°C target could lead to 420 million fewer people being exposed to extreme heatwaves, cut the risk of heavy rain and extreme drought, and reduce the risk of catastrophic flooding.
“COP27 is the moment where global leaders can regain momentum on climate change, make the necessary pivot from negotiations to implementation and get moving on the massive transformation that must take place throughout all sectors of society to address the climate emergency,” Steill said.
