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‘Real sting’ in Trump’s order: US to track Indian oil imports, redo tariff if Russia link found, analyst says ‘coercion’
India has neither confirmed nor denied Trump administration’s assertion that New Delhi has committed to stop buying Russian oil as part of trade deal framework
Donald Trump's order by which he removed 25% penal tariffs on India, also says that the US commerce secretary should track if India “resumes” such oil imports. This “monitoring mandate” is the “real sting” in Trump’s executive order, strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney has said.
“It formally tasks the commerce secretary with tracking Indian oil imports and creates a clear trigger: a finding that India has resumed ‘directly or indirectly’ importing Russian oil could snap the 25% punitive tariff back into place,” said Chellaney, professor emeritus at the independent think tank Centre for Policy Research (CPR), New Delhi.
He said the word “indirectly” is a loaded one. “It opens the door to penalizing Indian refined fuels — diesel, jet fuel and other products — sold to Europe or the U.S. if Washington deems them to have originated from Russian crude,” he theorised in a post on X.
“Donald Trump removes the tariff noose but leaves the rope firmly in place if India resumes buying Russian oil,” he also wrote.
He noted that “no Russian oil” clause would mean India would have to replace discounted Russian crude with market-priced US oil “made costlier still by longer transport distances”.
This, as per Chellaney, can add an estimated $4 billion a year to India’s oil import bill.
“Washington’s intent is unmistakable: to tether India’s energy security to a more expensive and geographically distant supplier, the U.S.,” he said.
India on Saturday neither confirmed nor denied the Trump administration’s assertion that New Delhi has committed to stop buying Russian oil as part of a trade deal.
What MEA said on oil
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) reiterated that energy purchases will be diversified on the basis of market conditions and international dynamics to ensure the country’s energy security — a diplomatic line that New Delhi has stuck to for months amid Trump's tariff aggression.
People familiar with the matter told HT that India is diversifying energy purchases for geopolitical reasons, though there were no immediate signs of Russian energy purchases dropping to zero altogether.
When commerce minister Piyush Goyal was asked about the “stop” to Russian oil, he said the MEA would answer. The MEA thereafter reiterated the old statement.
What Trump's order says
The US President's executive order reads, "India has committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil, has represented that it will purchase United States energy products from the United States, and has recently committed to a framework with the United States to expand defense cooperation over the next 10 years."
The order references Vladimir Putin's Moscow regime as a reason for these tariffs on India. It is titled: ‘Modifying Duties to Address Threats to the United States by the Government of the Russian Federation’.
It speaks of possible reimposition of the 25% punitive tariff, “if the (US) Secretary of Commerce finds that India has resumed directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil”.
This order is different from the India-US joint statement that announced the “framework for an Interim Agreement" towards an eventual Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).
‘Blunt instrument of economic coercion’
In all, India faced 50% tariffs since August 2025, of which 25% was “penalty” for Russian oil purchases that Trump said was “funding the war in Ukraine”. This 25% has been removed as part of movement towards a bilateral trade agreement between India and the US. The remaining 25% will be cut to 18% once the deal is sealed.
A joint statement by the two countries on the framework towards a deal does not expressly mention Russia, but says India will buy $500 billion worth of energy and other items from the US over the next five years.
This commitment is, according to Chellaney, “another feather to Trump’s extractive cap” after he got commitments of $550 billion from Japan, $350 billion from South Korea and $70 billion from Malaysia.
“With total U.S.-India bilateral goods trade at just $132.13 billion in 2025, forcing India to import roughly $100 billion a year from the United States would not merely skew the bilateral relationship — it could, without a dramatic jump in Indian exports, nearly double India’s overall merchandise trade deficit to around $200 billion,” he analysed.
“Trump has thus once again demonstrated that his trade strategy is more coercive and extractive than even China’s Belt and Road Initiative. By targeting weaker Asian partners, Trump is using U.S. market access not as leverage but as a blunt instrument of economic coercion,” he opined.
Indian refiners are reportedly avoiding Russian oil purchases for delivery in April. They are expected to stay away from such trades for longer, news agency Reuters reported on Sunday citing trade sources.
