Trivendra Singh Rawat’s exit from Uttarakhand a throwback to 2012

Political experts say if the new chief minister does well in the next few months on the governance front and keeps the party cadre and lawmakers happy, he could help the BJP regain the lost ground

Tirath Singh Rawat’s replacement of Trivendra Singh Rawat as the Uttarakhand chief minister is a throwback to 2012 when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chose BC Khanduri to replace Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank for the state’s top post six months before the assembly elections. Khanduri lost the election as the BJP got a seat less than the Congress, which formed the government in the state with the help of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Independent lawmakers.

Uttarakhand chief minister Trivendra Singh Rawat. (PTI)

The BJP hopes Tirath Singh Rawat, a Parliament member from Garhwal, will be able to recover the lost political ground before elections are due in Uttarakhand (a year from now). Khanduri had just about six months, which experts say was not enough to undo the damage.

Gangotri Dham priests celebrated Trivendra Singh Rawat’s exit by bursting crackers and terming it as “Vijay Diwas [victory day]”, signalling the mood on the ground that prompted the BJP to replace him. Priests have been unhappy with him for bringing prominent religious places under government-run Uttarkhand Char Dham Devasthanam Management Board. This was among the outgoing chief minister’s decisions that angered Hindu priests, who are considered the BJP’s core vote bank. His decision to cut short the Mahakhumb from three months to one was also opposed.

Political experts say if the new chief minister does well in the next few months on the governance front and keeps the party cadre and lawmakers happy, he could help the BJP regain the lost ground, or else it could be a cakewalk for the Congress.

MM Semwal, a Garhwal university professor, said the leadership change has increased the political instability and equations between the state’s two regions—Kumaon and Garhwal—and Thakur and Brahmin communities that would have to be reset. “This change shows that all was not well within the party [BJP]. Congress and the AAP [Aam Aadmi Party] will use this to further attack the government on issues such as unemployment, corruption... the shortening of Mahakumbh... simmering anger among Char Dham priests who have been opposing the takeover of the temples by the state government.”

Semwal said there is a strong possibility that Harish Rawat will try to emerge as the main Congress leader and push himself as the chief ministerial face. He added if Harish Rawat emerges as the Congress candidate for the top post, the BJP can lessen the damage by highlighting the alleged irregularities and corruption issues during his tenure as the chief minister.

A Congress leader said Harish Rawat could be relieved of his responsibility as Punjab in-charge of the party and be given the full-time responsibility of ensuring victory in Uttarakhand. There is, however, resistance to his projection as the chief ministerial face.

“He may be popular, but people still remember him for wrongs during his three-year tenure as chief minister. He faced allegations of promoting the mafia and corruption. If he is the party’s face, Congress will lose the advantage of Trivendra Singh Rawat’s removal,” said a second Congress leader, requesting anonymity.

Legislators loyal to Harish Rawat have called upon Congress leadership to declare him the party’s face. “That is unlikely to happen,” said the second leader.

Congress leader Indira Hridayesh said the BJP’s leadership change has made Congress’s job easier. “They wasted four years and betrayed people. People are not foolish. They know why this change happened. ...even MLAs [members of legislative assembly] were not happy... what can they [people] hope and expect? This change is symbolic that soon this BJP government will go, and Congress will come to power.”

BJP leaders are optimistic that Tirath Singh Rawat would ensure the party’s victory. “The Congress has no mass leader [with]...appeal like that of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” said BJP leader Dushyant Gautam.

Assembly elections are due in the state in March-April next year. The BJP has 56 members in the 70-member House, while the Congress has 11.