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Unthinkable AIADMK-DMK alliance buzz, kingmaker parties: All that TVK majority mark crisis has led to
The 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly has thrown up a hung verdict with Vijay's TVK emerging as the single largest party with 108 seats.
‘Thalapathy’ Vijay's blockbuster electoral debut has dramatically turned into a struggle for majority with the fractured verdict pushing Tamil Nadu into an intense government formation battle where smaller parties have emerged as the real power brokers.
The 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly has thrown up a hung verdict with Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerging as the single largest party with 108 seats - 10 short of the halfway mark of 118 needed to form the government. Track all updates on Tamil Nadu government formation here
With Congress extending support to TVK, Vijay currently has the backing of 113 MLAs, still five short of the majority mark. The efforts to collect the remaining required number of seats has also prompted buzz of arch rivals AIADMK and DMK's alliance — which may in one scenario also lead to forever-adversaries Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) being under the same tie-up.
The Congress and DMK were allies under the INDIA bloc of opposition parties, while the BJP had allied with the AIADMK for the Tamil Nadu election 2026. The DMK, however, has criticised the Congress move of extending support to the TVK.
Party-wise seat tally
TVK - 108
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) - 59
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) - 47
Indian National Congress (INC) - 5
Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) - 4
Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) - 2
Communist Party of India (CPI) - 2
Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi - VCK 2
Communist Party of India (Marxist) - CPI(M) - 2
Bharatiya Janata Party BJP - 1
Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) - 1
Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam (AMMKMNKZ) - 1
If the far-fetched and almost unbelievable scenario of an AIADMK (47) and DMK (59) alliance was to become reality, the duo would still require 12 seats to prove majority — necessitating the support from the other single-digit winners, all of whom make up for 20 seats.
There, however, are many other parties who could extend support and help the implausible AIADMK-DMK alliance to reach the majority mark before the need for BJP and Congress to come under the same fold arises.
Governor seeks majority proof
Amid the uncertainty, Vijay has had two unsuccessful trips to the governor house or Lok Bhavan. He met Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar for the second consecutive day on Thursday as the constitutional question over who should be invited to form the government moved to centre stage.
According to people aware of the matter, the governor asked TVK to demonstrate support from at least 118 MLAs before an invitation to form the government can be extended. Lok Bhavan also reportedly sought clarity on additional parties willing to back Vijay.
The developments have reignited the long-running constitutional debate over whether the single largest party should automatically get the first opportunity to form the government or whether the governor can seek prima facie evidence of majority support before issuing an invitation.
Several Supreme Court rulings - including the landmark SR Bommai v. Union of India verdict - have held that majority must ultimately be tested on the floor of the House, while also allowing governors limited discretion to assess whether a claimant appears capable of forming a stable government. Read full report here
Smaller parties become kingmakers
Amid the fractured verdict leading to intense political speculation over a possible post-poll understanding between arch rivals DMK and AIADMK - a scenario almost unthinkable in Tamil Nadu's sharply polarised Dravidian political history - neither side has officially acknowledged any talks.
DMK spokesperson TKS Elangovan on Thursday night denied the possibility of the two parties coming together but added that the decision rests with party chief, MK Stalin. If Stalin takes such a decision (To support AIADMK), DMK will accept it. But so far that decision has not been taken, he said, adding: “The leader’s decision is our decision”.
In many ways, the election's biggest winners are emerging to be the smaller regional and ideological outfits now positioned as kingmakers.
PMK's four MLAs, along with the two each held by IUML and CPI, have suddenly acquired outsized political significance. Their support could determine whether Vijay gets the first shot at forming the government or whether an alternative coalition emerges.
Even Congress, despite winning only five seats, has become central to the power struggle by providing TVK its initial support base.
The unusual arithmetic has transformed parties that would ordinarily occupy the political margins into decisive stakeholders in government formation negotiations.
Constitutional grey zone
Tamil Nadu now finds itself in a constitutional grey zone frequently seen in hung assemblies across India.
On one hand, TVK can argue that as the single largest party it deserves the first opportunity to prove majority on the Assembly floor. On the other, the governor may contend that some demonstrable evidence of majority support is necessary before extending an invitation.
Past precedents from states such as Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Maharashtra have shown that governors have often exercised discretion differently depending on the political context, leading to recurring legal and constitutional controversies, as detailed in an earlier HT report.
For now, all eyes remain on whether Vijay can secure the final few numbers needed to cross the majority mark - or whether Tamil Nadu could witness one of the most unexpected coalition experiments in its political history.
