Kerala: Wayanad landslides linked to warming of Arabian Sea? What climate expert said
Scientists say that the combined damage of climate change, excessive mining and loss of green cover may have caused landslides in Wayanad
Scientists have said the devastating Wayanad landslides in Kerala could be the result of a combination of climate change, excessive mining and loss of forest cover in the region.
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On Tuesday, heavy rain set off a series of landslides in Kerala's Wayanad district, leaving more than 120 people dead and 128 injured. Many are still feared to be trapped under debris. The Met Office said more heavy rainfall could occur in some places in the state over the next two days.
Also Read: Heavy rain, dense fog, absence of key bridge hamper rescue efforts in Kerala’s Wayanad
According to the landslide atlas released by the Indian Space Research Organisation's (ISRO) National Remote Sensing Centre in 2023, 10 out of the 30 most landslide-prone districts in India were located in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked 13th.
Also Read: Wayanad landslide: 106 dead, rescue teams face rain, terrain challenges | 10 points
Scientists have identified a mix of causes for the landslides - namely loss of forests, climate change and excessive mining.
Loss of green cover
A 2021 study on landslide hotspots in India revealed that 59 per cent of the total landslides in Kerala occurred in plantation areas.
In 2022 as well, a study on the depleting forest cover in Wayanad showed that 62 per cent of forests in the district disappeared between 1950 and 2018 while plantation cover rose by around 1,800 per cent.
The study, published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, said around 85 per cent of the total area of Wayanad was under forest cover until the 1950s.
Loss of forests increase the fragility of the terrain, especially in areas prone to heavy rains in the western ghats.
Climate change
S Abhilash, director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), pointed towards the warming of the Arabian Sea as one of the causes for the extremely heavy and unpredictable rain patterns in the state.
"Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above this region, including Kerala, to become thermodynamically unstable," he told news agency PTI.
Abhilash said that scientists have noticed a trend of deep cloud systems forming due to the warming of the Arabian sea, which causes extremely heavy spells of rain in shorter periods of time, increasing the risk of landslides, especially when these intrude into land.
He said that this pattern of rainfall has been observed since the 2019 Kerala floods.
Research by Abhilash and other scientists published in Climate and Atmospheric Science journal in 2022 found that rainfall over the west coast of India was becoming more convective - intense rains in shorter periods.
Environmental neglect and mining
Since 2011, the "Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel" set up by the government under ecologist Madhav Gadgil, has recommended that the Wayanad hill ranges be declared ecologically sensitive.
The panel also said that the region needed to be divided into zones based on their ecological sensitivity, where the most vulnerable sections needed to be monitored and protected him from rampant commercial activity.
They recommended a ban on mining, quarrying, new thermal power plants, hydropower projects and large-scale wind energy projects in ecologically sensitive zone 1.
The suggestions made by the panel have not been implemented even after 14 years due to resistance from state governments, industries and local communities.
