Mixed bag: Some hit bullseye, others off the mark
Two exit polls had predicted that the Samajwadi Party would be in a position to form a government in Uttar Pradesh without seeking support from any other party.
While CNN-IBN-The Week post-poll survey conducted by political scientist and psephologist Yogendra Yadav of Centre for Studies in Developing Societies (CSDS), gave SP 232-250 seats in the 403-member state assembly, the party was winning about 224 seats when the results were being declared.
The majority mark in the assembly is 202. The CNN-IBN survey gave the BSP 65-79 seats, the Congress-RLD 36-44 seats and the BJP 28-38 seats.
The election results showed the BSP winning about 80, the BJP 47 and the Congress-RLD 37. The Headlines Today survey, done by Sanjay Kumar, also gave a clear majority to SP, giving the party 195-210 votes in UP.
The TV channel gave the following number of seats to the other parties in the fray: BSP 88-98, BJP 50-56 and Congress-RLD 38-42. However, Star News AC-Neilson, India TV-C Voter and News 24-Chanakya put the SP, which they predicted would be the leading party, below the majority mark, giving it 183, 137-145 and 185 seats respectively. Star News’s tally for other parties: BSP 83 seats, BJP 71 and Congress-RLD 62.
India TV gave these parties 122-130, 79-87 and 39-55 respectively, and the corresponding figures of News 24 were 85, 55 and 55. CNN-IBN also got Punjab almost correct, predicting a lead for the SAD-BJP combine. It gave the SAD-BJP 51-63 seats and Congress 48-60. When the final results came, the SAD-BJP won 68 seats and the Congress 46.
Headlines Today, however, had given SAD-BJP 50-54 seats and the Congress 58-62 seats; and News 24 predicted SAD-BJP would win 52 seats and Congress would win 60 seats.