SP safe bet, BSP stocks down

After Phase 4, bookies give Mulayam-led party 6 seats more, Maya's party slides by 9, Congress stays put. Deep Saxena & Rohit K Singh report. Take a bet

At the end of the fourth phase of polls in Uttar Pradesh, punters are putting more money on the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the BJP.

No party gets a clear majority, but the SP, which was tipped to win 137-141 seats before the polls began, is now expected to get 139-143 seats – good odds are offered on scores below 139 and above 143.

The Congress is expected to get 66-70 seats — no change in bets there.

Samajwadi-Party-leader-Mulayam-Singh-Yadav--walks-towards-a-chopper-as-he-leaves-after-addressing-an-election-rally-in-Allahabad-AP-Photo-Rajesh-Kumar-Singh

The score of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), has come down from the earlier 118-121 seats to 109-113 seats. The prediction for Independent candidates is 14-16 seats.

The bookies expect the BJP to do better this time. From the earlier 52-55 seats the saffron party's score has been put at 56-60 seats.

"The market trend shows that more money is being put on the SP and the BJP. To make it safe, the bookies have reworked their cushion," said an insider.

Explaining how the system works, he said if one wishes to put money on the SP, he has to say either 'no' to 139 seats or 'yes' to 143 seats. A "no" to 139 seats would mean the SP's tally should be 138 or less. In case of a 'yes' to 143 seats, the SP should get 144 seats or more.

"The seats in between are the cushion for bookies," he said, and that's where the party's actual tally is likely to lie.

Another group of betting gurus is presenting a different set of dynamics.

For them, the odds offered for 150 seats for SP is 1:1.80 – meaning a return of Rs 1.80 on Rs 1. The odds offered for 100 seats for the BSP are 1:1.95. "This means the bookies expect the SP to win less than 150 seats and the BSP to win less than 100 seats," said an insider.

The odds for Congress winning 65 seats or more is even higher — 1:2.40. And the BJP is expected to get fewer than 50 seats — the odds for 50 and above is 1:2.60.

The betting syndicates are operating from the Old City while the money is being put from places as far as New Delhi.