Lok Sabha Elections 2019: Opposition alliance looks to take on BJP in western UP in phase 1

The BJP faces a stiff challenge from the arithmetically formidable Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) alliance , which is banking on the sizeable chunk of concentrated Muslims voters in the region in western Uttar Pradesh which votes in the first phase on April 11.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is hoping to retain its eight Lok Sabha seats in Western Uttar Pradesh that are voting in the first phase of Lok Sabha elections on Thursday. It faces a stiff challenge from the arithmetically formidable Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) alliance, which is banking on the sizeable chunk of concentrated Muslims voters in the region.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad and Gautam Buddh Nagar in the aftermath of communal polarization in the region. The 2013 Muzaffarnagar violence triggered the polarization.

The BJP swept the region and secured 42.63% votes. The SP-BSP-RLD alliance had a combined vote share of 42.98% in 2014 polls and is countering the BJP by listing the government’s failures.

The Congress, with a vote share of 7.53% in the previous election, has largely been reduced to a marginal player.

Of all the Congress candidates, its Saharanpur nominee, Imran Masood, is seen as a strong contender to make it to Lok Sabha. In 2014, Masood secured over 4.07 lakh votes. He lost to the BJP’s Raghav Lakhanpal, who got over 4.72 votes.

Keeping in view the support that Masood enjoys, BSP president Mayawati has urged Muslims not to let the community’s votes split. A likely split in votes of Muslim community may give the BJP an edge.

Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath have targeted Masood in their public meetings. Adityanath called Masood Pakistan-based terrorist Azhar Masood’s son-in-law and alleged that he spoke the language of terrorists.

“Now, you will have to decide whether you want to elect a candidate who speaks Azhar Masood’s language or Modi’s lieutenant Raghav Lakhanpal who will ensure the development of all,” Yogi said.

Muslims account for Saharanpur’s 40% population.

“Imran Masood has a lot of local support because of the work that he has done in the community. He has been instrumental in resolving communal disputes…,” said Mohammad Afzal, 46, who runs a small tea-stall.

Businessman Vijay Chawla, 54, said he will vote for the BJP. “I am a Hindu and will give the vote to a Hindu only,” he said. “Even many Muslim women support Modi because of his promise of abolishing triple talaq [instant divorce practice among a section of Muslims,’’ he said.

“At the end of the day, they [BJP] still have done some work. We did face certain issues during demonetisation but despite that, there has been development.”

Bhim Army, which has a considerable following in Western Uttar Pradesh, has appealed to members of the Dalit community to vote for Masood.

BSP candidate from Saharanpur, Fazlur Rahman, said a Muslim has won even when two Muslims have contested the seat. “I am not dependent only on Muslim votes. I am getting votes from every community. I have Hindu votes and Dalit votes.”

A sizeable chunk of Muslims turned up for the Congress rally in Kairana on Monday. Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s roadshow in Ghaziabad and Bijnor, too, attracted large crowds.

S K Dwivedi, a former head of the department of political science at Lucknow University, said Muslim votes are getting divided between the alliance and Congress. “Mayawati’s appeal to the community against any division of votes has not made much impact and this may prove advantageous to the BJP to some extent.”

In Meerut, the BJP has fielded Rajendra Agarwal for the third time despite resentment against him in the key constituency. Heavy turnout in the joint rally of Mayawati and RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary on Monday also boosted the morale of the alliance candidate, Haji Yakoob, in Meerut. Congress has fielded Harendra Agarwal, a Vaishya candidate, who is likely to eat into the BJP’s Vaishya votes.

In Kairana, BJP’s Pradeep Choudhary faces the challenge of consolidating Hindu Gujjar voters loyal to the family of former lawmaker late Hukum Singh. The party has denied ticket to Hukum Singh’s daughter, Mriganka Singh, who had contested the 2018 Lok Sabha by-poll after the demise of her father. But she lost to the alliance candidate, Tabassum Hasan.

The Congress has not fielded candidates against RLD candidate Jayant Chaudhary in Baghpat and his father, Ajit Singh, in Muzaffarnagar. Jayant Chaudhary will take on Union minister and BJP candidate Satyapal Singh in Baghpat. Ajit Singh will be up against BJP’s Sanjeev Baliyan.

BJP candidate from Bijnor, Bhartendra Singh, also faces the challenge of retaining his seat. The alliance has fielded Malook Nagar while Congress Naseemuddin Siddiqui, a former BSP leader.

In Bijnor, Muslim’s constitute 43% of the total population.

(With inputs from Umesh Raghuvanshi and S Raju)