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NDA may fall 15 seats short of majority, says survey

The survey said on Saturday that key to government formation could lie in the hands of ‘others’ who may get 140 seats in a House of 543. ‘Others’ include Samajwadi Party, BSP, AIADMK, Trinamool Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress Party, Left Front, PDP of Mehbooba Mufti, AIUDF of Badruddin Ajmal, AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi, INLD, Aam Aadmi Party, JVM(P), AMMK of Tamil Nadu and independent MPs.

lok sabha elections Updated: Jan 06, 2019 12:03 IST
Indo Asian News Service
Indo Asian News Service
New Delhi
NDA,2019 Lok Sabha polls,Lok Sabha polls
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre may fall nearly 15 seats short of the magic mark of 272 in the 543-seat Lok Sabha, if elections are held now, says the India TV-CNX opinion poll.(Bloomberg Photo)

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre may fall nearly 15 seats short of the magic mark of 272 in the 543-seat Lok Sabha, if elections are held now, says the India TV-CNX opinion poll.

According to the survey, conducted between December 15-25 at the fag end of last year in all 543 parliamentary constituencies, the NDA may get 257 seats and the Congress-led UPA (minus SP and BSP) may get 146 seats, far off the magic mark.

The survey was done after the results of assembly polls in five states including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where Congress has formed governments.

The survey said on Saturday that key to government formation could lie in the hands of ‘others’ who may get 140 seats in a House of 543.

‘Others’ include Samajwadi Party, BSP, AIADMK, Trinamool Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress Party, Left Front, PDP of Mehbooba Mufti, AIUDF of Badruddin Ajmal, AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi, INLD, Aam Aadmi Party, JVM(P), AMMK of Tamil Nadu and independent MPs.

NDA includes the ruling BJP, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, JD(U), Mizo National Front, Apna Dal, Sikkim Democratic Front, LJP of Ramvilas Paswan, NPP of Meghalaya, INRC of Puducherry, PMK and NDPP of Nagaland.

An India TV release said that UPA includes the main opposition Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal, DMK, TDP, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, Devegowda’s JD(S), Ajit Singh’s RLD, National Conference, RSP, JMM, IUML, Kerala Congress (Mani) and RLSP.

The earlier nationwide survey conducted by India TV-CNX in November, before the assembly polls, had given NDA a clear majority with 281 seats, UPA 124, and ‘Others’ 138. Since then there has been a reduction of 24 seats in NDA and an addition of 22 seats in UPA, says the survey.

The survey says that NDA could get 37.15 per cent votes, UPA 29.92 per cent and `others’ 32.93 per cent.

Within the NDA, BJP may win 223 seats, Shiv Sena 8, JD(U) 11, Akali Dal 5, LJP 3, PMK 1, NDPP 1, AINRC 1, NPP 1, SDF 1, Apna Dal 1, and MNF 1.

The survey said that Congress may win 85 seats (almost double that it won in 2014), DMK 21, Lalu Prasad’s RJD 10, NCP 9, JMM 4, JD(S) 4, RLD 2, RLSP 1, RSP 1, IUML 2, TDP 4, JK National Conference 2, and Kerala Congress (M) 1.

Among ‘others’, Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress could get 26 seats, Samajwadi Party 20, Mayawati’s BSP 15, YSR Congress 19, Telangana Rashtra Samithi 16, Biju Janata Dal 13, AIADMK 10, AMMK 4, Left Front 8, Aam Aadmi Party 2, AIUDF 2, PDP 1, JVM (P) 1 and AIMIM 1.

State wise break up of seat prediction is:

State wise break up of seat prediction according to India TV-CNX opinion poll
Uttar Pradesh
PartySeats
BJP40
BSP15
SP20
Congress2
RLD2
Apna Dal1
Uttarakhand
PartySeats
BJP4
Congress1
Rajasthan
PartySeats
BJP15
Congress10
West Bengal
PartySeats
TMC26
BJP10
Congress2
Left Front4
Odisha
PartySeats
Biju Janata Dal13
BJP8
Madhya Pradesh
PartySeats
BJP18
Congress11
Chhattisgarh
PartySeats
BJP5
Congress6
Punjab
PartySeats
Congress7
Akali Dal5
AAP1
Haryana
PartySeats
BJP8
Congress2
Bihar
PartySeats
BJP13
RJD10
JD(U)11
Congress2
LJP3
RLSP1
Jharkhand
PartySeats
BJP7
JMM4
Congress2
JVM(P)1
Himachal Pradesh
PartySeats
BJP4
Maharsahtra
PartySeats
BJP22
Shiv Sena8
Congress9
NCP9
Goa
PartySeats
BJP1
Congress1
Tamil Nadu
PartySeats
DMK21
AIADMK10
AMMK4
Congress3
PMK1
Andhra Pradesh
PartySeats
YSR Congress19
TDP4
Congress2
Telangana
PartySeats
Telangana Rashtra Samithi16
AIMIM1
Karnataka
PartySeats
BJP15
Congress9
JD(S)4
Kerala
PartySeats
Congress8
Left Front5
IUML2
BJP1
KC(M)1
RSP1
Independent2
Jammu & Kashmir
PartySeats
BJP2
NC2
Congress1
PDP1
Assam
PartySeats
BJP12
AIUDF2
Arunachal Pradesh
PartySeats
BJP2
Mizoram
PartySeats
MNF1
Manipur
PartySeats
BJP2
Meghalaya
PartySeats
Congress1
NPP1
Tripura
PartySeats
BJP1
CPI(M)1
Nagaland
PartySeats
NDPP1
NPF1
Sikkim
PartySeats
SDF1
Delhi
PartySeats
BJP5
AAP1
Congress1
Chandigarh
PartySeats
BJP1
Andaman & Nicobar
PartySeats
BJP1
Dadra Nagar Haveli
PartySeats
BJP1
Daman & Diu
PartySeats
BJP1
Lakshadweep
PartySeats
Congress1
Puducherry
PartySeats
INRC1

According to the release, research and survey agency CNX gave 54,300 respondents structured questionnaire across 543 parliamentary constituencies, covering 1,086 assembly constituencies, with an average of 100 respondents in each Lok Sabha constituency. Those interviewed included 27,832 males and 26,408 females in the age group 18 to 60 years.

The survey, the release said, covered both residential and business areas, remote and key localities, including upper middle class colonies. It said that the sample respondents came from all walks of life, including cobblers, tailors, barbers, daily wage labourers, small shopkeepers, mechanics, medical practitioners, auto-taxi drivers and real estate dealers.

The next Lok Sabha elections would be held in April-May.

(This story has been published from a wire agency feed without modifications to the text. )

First Published: Jan 06, 2019 11:14 IST