Second Covid-19 wave likely in Maharashtra in January-February: Health department advisory

The state health department has issued an advisory for municipal bodies and district administrations in the state to be prepared for a surge

Anticipating a possible second wave of Covid-19 in Maharashtra around January 2021, the state health department has issued an advisory for municipal bodies and district administrations in the state to be prepared for a surge. Maharashtra achieved a peak in infections in September and is now seeing a downward trend in the daily number of cases for four-five weeks. However, with further relaxations on the movement of people, festive season and ongoing winter, there is a fear of a possible surge is cases.

Healthcare staff screen and test residents at Malad on Thursday. (Satyabrata Tripathy/HT)

In the advisory dated November 11, the department cited the second wave in European nations and said, “Like in European nations, we could face a second wave in January-February…” The advisory called for increased testing up to the capacity of laboratories and also for a firecracker-free Diwali, as it would add to the discomfort of coronavirus patients and those suffering from lung ailments.

Meanwhile, Maharashtra added 4,496 fresh Covid-19 cases on Thursday, pushing the tally to 17,36,329. Maharashtra also reported 122 fatalities, taking the toll to 45,682. Of the 122 deaths, 85 occurred within the past 48 hours, while 37 deaths occurred in the past week, a state health department statement said. The active cases in the state stood at 84,627, while the recovery rate improved to 92.44%. Mumbai added 858 new cases on Thursday, taking its tally to 267,606. It also reported 19 deaths, pushing the toll to 10,525.

State health minister Rajesh Tope said the health infrastructure was prepared to tackle the surge, but added that the possibility of a second wave is low. Members of the state-appointed Covid-19 task force said the second wave, if it does happen, could hit by December-end.

Health experts said aggressive Covid-19 appropriate behaviour was the only way to mitigate it, while continuing aggressive testing tracing and isolation.

Tope said people should celebrate Diwali, but while doing so, they must follow all protocol and rules that are in place to contain the spread of Covid-19. “It is not some rocket science — social distancing, masks and sanitising are what people have to follow. I have given instructions [to all district and municipal bodies] to remain prepared. The peak Maharashtra achieved was about 25,000 [cases in a day], even if it [the second wave] goes above that by 10%-20%, we are prepared for it, in terms of doctors, other staff, drugs, hospital beds, ventilators, oxygen etc,” Tope said.

The health minister said the possibility of a second wave hitting the state is low. “But since winter has set in, and viruses get a boost in this weather, we have to remain more vigilant and prepared,” he said.

Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of the Covid-19 task force, said that with the temperature in many parts of Maharashtra going below 10 degrees, with pollution, and further unlocking, Maharashtra is likely to have a second wave. “I am predicting that the second wave will be from December-end to January-end. But everybody has a different prediction model,” he said.

The member on the task force added that people have not followed Covid-appropriate behaviour during the festive period. “There is zero masking and zero physical distancing for Diwali shopping across Maharashtra. Secondly, there is crowding and there is a lot of cross migration from villages, towns and cities. More the transportation of people, more would be the spread of the virus. People think Covid has gone, it is irresponsible behaviour. The way Delhi has seen a surge with dropping temperatures, even we can see that. We should not remain off guard.”

According to Joshi, the situation in Mumbai has improved, but the risk has not passed for Mumbai. He said that the slum population might have been more exposed to the virus in the first wave, only about 20% of the people living in high-rises have been exposed to the virus, keeping the threat intact.

“There is a large exposure of virus in the lower economic strata like slums. Already 70-80% of them are exposed to the virus and whether they have developed some sort of immunity or not we will know in the next by December-end. Most of the Mumbai high-rises, the exposure is 10-20%, the risk for Mumbai still stays. Many people migrate from the north to Mumbai because of the cold wave, we have to remain on guard,” he said.

The advisory from the health department has stressed on continuing testing as per the guidelines of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). “There should not be any negligence in testing. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has stated that 140 tests should be done daily for every 10 lakh people. It is mentioned in our rules as well, and therefore it must be followed,” the advisory stated.

Joshi said that state lacks in testing and tracing and only utilises 50% of the testing capacity in the state. “We are still poor at testing and tracing. We are only using 50% of our testing capacity. The other disturbing trend is that people are not testing at all. If they see symptoms, they start treatment. So we do not pick up the true number of cases,” he said.

According to public health experts, masks are the only medicine so far to combat the virus. Dr Sanjay Pattiwar, a public health expert said, “People have to wear masks, maintain sanitisation and physical distancing.” Joshi added, “It is still 12 to 18 months for Maharashtra to get a vaccine so the only way now is masking.”

In terms of health infrastructure, Mumbai and Pune are better prepared, Joshi said. “We have a shortage of ICU beds. Rather than making temporary structures, we need to strengthen current infrastructure and build permanent structures.”