Even as attention in America has turned to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)’s raid on Donald Trump’s residence-cum-resort in Florida — the former President seems to have run off with top secret documents — the real political story of the last month is Joe Biden’s comeback.
Like the Barack Obama presidency was synonymous with health care, the Biden presidency may now well be associated with the Chips and Science Act and what, for political reasons, is called the Inflation
Even as attention in America has turned to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)’s raid on Donald Trump’s residence-cum-resort in Florida — the former President seems to have run off with top secret documents — the real political story of the last month is Joe Biden’s comeback.
Like the Barack Obama presidency was synonymous with health care, the Biden presidency may now well be associated with the Chips and Science Act and what, for political reasons, is called the Inflation Reduction Act. Both represent a massive State-led policy push to change the face of the American economy. The first seeks to address deficiencies vis-a-vis China; the second seeks to correct the dismal record in battling the climate. Add to it Biden’s earlier success in getting a bipartisan infrastructure bill and a pandemic relief bill passed — and those who reduce the president to only a subject of mockery may want to reconsider their views.
First, two caveats.
One, Biden’s popularity ratings remain dismal. His recent successes may not be enough to offset a defeat for the Democrats in the House of Representatives later this year. While gas prices have gone down, inflation remains a pressing concern for voters. There remains a growing chorus, including within the Democratic Party, for a different candidate in 2024 to take on the Republicans. Biden, who will be 82 in 2024, has said that he will contest again and appears to believe that if it is Trump on the other side, only he has the ability to defeat the former President.
Two, the FBI raid has galvanised Trump and his base, and forced even his critics within the Republican establishment to criticise the administration (though it was a Department of Justice, not a White House, operation). As details emerged of the nature of the classified documents that Trump walked away with, and the extreme-Right base began attacking the FBI, some elements of the Grand Old Party did try to step back. But it is always hard to know whether a potential crime weakens Trump, or makes him appear like a hero.
The problem for the Republicans is that the more the extreme base consolidates behind Trump, the more suburban voters and moderates move away from the party. Indeed, it is to polarise the election on exactly these lines that the Democrats, in an act which shatters their moral high ground and could politically boomerang, are actually spending money to support Trump-backed candidates in the Republican primaries for Senate and House seats; the calculation is that it will be easier to defeat them than moderate Republicans.
But despite these political and electoral uncertainties, Biden may well end up being a transformative President. Here is why.
The pandemic changed America’s strategic calculus. It brought home how decades of embracing China and weaving a complex web of economic interlinkages had made the United States (US) utterly dependent on its primary strategic adversary, or “peer-level competitor”, as official documents put it. External shocks often cause a reset in American industrial policy — it was the arrival of the World War II in Europe that led Franklin D Roosevelt to provide massive State investment and subsidies to industry to ramp up defence production to prepare for the war in quick time.
And it is a similar realisation of vulnerability that has led to a broad political consensus in favour of an atmanirbhar (self-reliant) America by offering massive State support to private industry. The Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors for America (CHIPS) and Science Act is a $280 billion legislation. It provides close to $53 billion for American semiconductor research, development, manufacturing and workforce development, including $39 billion in manufacturing incentives. Biden believes it will boost American competitiveness and reduce dependence, but its significance lies as much in the signalling — the US is not going to outsource its strategic sectors anymore, especially to China.
Similarly, what is called the Inflation Reduction Act is actually a combination of an energy and social care legislation. It commits $369 billion to curbing emissions and promoting green tech. Experts will continue to have a vigorous debate on whether the Act goes far enough in battling the climate crisis (it doesn’t, especially given America’s historic emissions). But the fact is that this is the US’s significant climate legislation, where money has been pumped into transforming incentives for producers and consumers across a range of sectors.
Put it all together and Biden and the Democrats finally have a story to tell this November. And it is on these lines: Donald Trump is reckless. He violated the Constitution on January 6 and has even stolen national secrets. If the Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republicans come to power, all your rights will be in jeopardy, just like abortion was struck down. We deliver. The Chips Act will bring back jobs and make us competitive. With the infra bill, we invested in your roads and bridges. We are lowering your health costs and battling the climate. And we have taken on Russia in Ukraine and China in the Indo-Pacific.
Whether this script is enough to offset the divisions caused by America’s culture wars, or the anger caused by inflation, or dispel the impression of a weak President is to be seen. But Joe Biden has shown that when you least expect it, the man who first became a Senator in 1972 can spring a political surprise.
The views expressed are personal
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