Looking back before looking ahead in 2024
Three things stood out during the election campaign: Rising unemployment, divisive political rhetoric, and the decline of institutions.
Befitting a general election that stretched interminably across 46 days from the first polling date to the final day of reckoning, the proliferation of narratives that marked the 2024 Indian general election can fill this entire newspaper. The election was a coronation for a beloved Prime Minister, a seat-by-seat scramble for votes, a desperate stirring of the communal pot, and an attempt to defend the constitutional guarantee of reservation. Whichever plot you favoured at the time, the outcome deviates sharply from the one most experts had predicted before a single vote was cast: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has emerged as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha but is heavily reliant on its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners to form the government — a major break from both 2014 and 2019.
India is a country in a hurry to move forward and few people will waste time looking back. Already, journalists are speculating about who will feature prominently in the new coalition government, markets are attempting to divine the new government’s policy priorities, and special interests are preparing their “100-day agendas.” Nevertheless, it would be unwise to shift gears without adequately reflecting on what the recent campaign has taught us. Three takeaways stand above all others.
First, despite the glossy headline numbers trotted out to tout the Indian economy, ground realities tell a different story. For years, economists have been warning of a “K-shaped” recovery in which the haves prosper while the have-nots struggle to stay afloat. The significant dip in the BJP’s tally suggests that aam aadmi is not satisfied with the status quo. While a plurality of Indians may believe that Modi remains best equipped to ease the plight of ordinary Indians trying to plug into an economy that selects for skills they do not possess and struggle to acquire, their faith appears rattled.
Recently released government data reveal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 7.8% last quarter, a pleasant surprise. But Gross Value Added (GVA) growth — a better proxy of underlying dynamism — has continued to slide, from 8.3% three quarters ago to 6.3% last quarter. If Rahul Gandhi’s 2015 “suit-boot ki sarkar” jibe jolted the government into fashioning a “new welfarism”, the resonance the Opposition has found in highlighting the country’s two-speed economy should force the government to rethink its broader approach. Generous welfare provisioning has provided a floor for the less fortunate, but it has not created a springboard for upward mobility. The government should pivot from the public provision of private goods to improving the quality of public goods — education and health above all. It must also better align trade policy, subsidies, and factor market reform to invigorate labour-intensive manufacturing capable of creating jobs at scale. This is especially dire in the context of a worrying youth unemployment rate.
Second, the divisive rhetoric employed by ruling party star campaigners and social media accounts — including the prime minister himself — has deepened societal wounds that will not easily heal. For the past decade, BJP supporters have rebutted criticisms that its “Hindu-first” approach is intended to marginalise religious minorities. This is not about badla (revenge), they say, but the izzat (respect) of one hundred crore Hindus. The PM’s communally-tinged campaign rhetoric — with its references to “infiltrators,” an unnamed community “that has more children,” a nefarious conspiracy to snatch the mangalsutra of Hindu brides, and enigmatic “Mughal plots” — reveals that such arguments are naïve at best, or disingenuous at worst. The fact is that the relentless mobilisation of majoritarian sentiment for political gain requires the constant demonisation of an “other”, in this case, Muslims. The BJP, and the Sangh Parivar more generally, have always prioritised two key objectives above all others: Religious nationalism and economic uplift. The realities of the BJP’s newfound coalition dharma will perhaps act as a check on majoritarianism.
Third, the decay of referee institutions designed to promote government accountability and ensure a level playing field for incumbents and challengers alike is a longstanding concern. But the lacklustre performance of the Election Commission of India (ECI) only intensifies these anxieties. From the curious timing and phase-wise arrangement of the elections to the studied silence in the face of obvious infractions of the Model Code of Conduct and the bizarre controversy over publishing basic voter turnout data, ECI has done self-harm to its well-earned reputation for competence and independence.
It is no secret that accountability institutions in India tend to bend to the will of the executive during periods of prolonged political dominance, be it the Congress of yesteryear or the BJP of today. But one does not need to be an electronic voting machine conspiracy theorist to recognise that decreasing levels of confidence in the agency entrusted with ensuring free and fair elections could inflict lasting damage on the body politic. One silver lining of this election is that referee institutions like ECI, which have exhibited excessive deference to a domineering ruling party, might enjoy more space to assert themselves under a coalition setup. Parties of all stripes must recognise that, in the end, the credibility of referee institutions enhances the credibility of the eventual election winner.
One year after Modi captured national power in 2014, a BJP official sketched out their newly elected leader’s 15-year vision in a private conversation. When BJP karyakartas (functionaries) campaign for Modi in 2019, he explained, they will compare his first term to the record of the recently departed United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government. And when they rally behind him in 2024, party workers will measure Modi’s 10-year record against the promises he made in 2014. And by the time 2029 approaches, the party faithful will compare Modi to history. With a third consecutive NDA victory, however, diminished the tally, Modi can rest assured that his place in the history books is secure. But how favourably posterity portrays the PM will turn on what the next five years hold.
Milan Vaishnav is senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. The views expressed are personal
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