Au revoir from women’s seeds comes early in Paris

Seven of the top 10 seeds have exited French Open, a first since 1976.

Karolina Pliskova spoke as matter-of-factly as one could about her plans. “My plan is to fly away,” she said after an early exit from a Grand Slam.

Karolina Pliskova during the French Open. (AP)

Much like her fellow top 10 seeds have this French Open.

Seven out of the 10 highest seeded women’s singles players have exited on the Parisian dirt from the two rounds of action, a high casualty rate even by the recent oscillating standard of women’s tennis in Slams. The Women’s Tennis Association had to rewind to 1976 for the last time only three or fewer top-10 women’s seeds entered the Round of 32 at Roland Garros.

The governing body for men’s tennis also dug out stats of its own, though at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. According to the ATP, this French Open marks the first time each of the top 12 men’s singles seeds has advanced to the third round since 2009, and in Grand Slams since the 2011 Wimbledon. The highest seed to make the earliest exit has been 14th seed Denis Shapovalov in the first round.

Plenty of names among the top 10 women seeds were buried at the same stage: defending champion Barbora Krejcikova (seeded 2nd), 5th and 6th seeds Anett Kontaveit and Ons Jabeur and 2016 champion Garbine Muguruza (10th). Add to that 4th seed Maria Sakkari, Pliskova (seeded 8th) and Danielle Collins (9th) bidding adieu in the second round and you’d probably doff your hat to Iga Swiatek, Paula Badosa and Aryna Sabalenka for not following the upsets trail. Not yet, anyway.

“I could feel like, wow, this is good, because they are losing,” third seed Badosa said after her second-round win on Thursday. “But in this case, I'm more like, OK, pay attention, because anything can happen.”

If you thought the 2021 French Open was wild with the top three seeded women falling away in the first week, this edition has already topped it. In fact, the trend of marquee women players exiting early at Roland Garros has only grown over the past six years.

Last year, seven of the top 10 women’s singles seeds lost in or before the third round. However, it included Ash Barty retiring in the second round, Naomi Osaka withdrawing before her match and just one opening-round ouster of Bianca Andreescu. The 2020 French Open had five top-10 seeds crash from or prior to the third round (including one withdrawal), while the 2019 edition had six (one retirement) and 2018 had five. Both at the 2016 and 2017 French Open, six of the top 10 seeds went beyond the third round.

The upset bug among women also tends to sting harder at the French Open compared to the other Slams, which also explains the tournament’s six previous winners being first-time Grand Slam champions. At this year's Australian Open, for example, only three of the top 10 seeds exited in the third round or earlier and none in the first. Ditto at the 2021 US Open. The Wimbledon has a slightly higher corresponding figure (five in the 2021 and 2019 editions), but the volume and velocity of first week departures from the French Open in the last two years stand out.

One of the reasons could be quite a few women from the current top-10 crop feeling less comfortable on clay. The likes of Pliskova—who has made the second week in Paris just once in 11 outings—2022 Australian Open finalist Collins and Kontaveit have produced better and far more consistent results on hard courts. The same goes for Osaka, unseeded for this tournament but another big name to walk away from the first round. The only real surprises from the current top-10 exit list are Jabeur, who came into this French Open with 17 match wins on clay, and last year's semi-finalist Sakkari.

The other factor for the increased unpredictability is the ones who aren’t around. The retired Barty's all-round, all-court game was a breath of fresh air, highlighted by her sole second-round Grand Slam exit after her maiden triumph in 2019. Serena Williams hasn’t competed since her opening-round retirement at the 2021 Wimbledon and Osaka has yet to play like a four-time Slam champion after coming back from her mental health break last year.

Over to top seed Swiatek, then, to ride her consistency train all the way in Paris and with it break the chain of inconsistency.

SEED TRACKER AT ROLAND GARROS

Below is the number of top 10 women’s singles seeds exiting in or before the third round at the French Open since 2016:

2022: 7*

2-Krejcikova (Rd 1), 4-Sakkari (Rd 2), 5-Kontaveit (Rd 1), 6-Jabeur (Rd 1), 8-Pliskova (Rd 2), 9-Collins (Rd 2), 10-Muguruza (Rd 1)

2021: 7

1-Barty (Rd2, retired), 2-Osaka (Rd 2, withdrew), 3-Sabalenka (Rd 3), 5-Svitolina (Rd 3), 6-Andreescu (Rd 1), 9-Pliskova (Rd2), 10-Bencic (Rd 2)

2020: 5

2-Pliskova (Rd 2), 6-S Williams (Rd 2, withdrew), 8-Sabalenka (Rd 3), 9-Konta (Rd 1), 10-Azarenka (Rd 2)

2019: 6

1-Osaka (Rd 3), 2-Pliskova (Rd 3), 4-Bertens (Rd 2, retired), 5-Kerber (Rd 1), 9-Svitolina (Rd 3), 10-S Williams (Rd 3)

2018: 5

4-Svitolina (Rd 3), 5-Ostapenko (Rd 1), 6-Pliskova (Rd 3), 8-Kvitova (Rd 3), 9-V Williams (Rd 1)

2017: 4

1-Kerber (Rd 1), 6-Cibulkova (Rd 2), 7-Konta (Rd 1), 9-Radwanska (Rd 3)

2016: 4

3-Kerber (Rd 1), 5-Azarenka (Rd 1, retired), 7-Vinci (Rd 1), 10-Kvitova (Rd 3)

*Updated till Friday