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This asteroid may hit the Moon in 2032 and Earth could witness a meteor shower
An asteroid having the size of a 15-story building might slam into the Moon in 2032. If it does, Earth could see a meteor shower.
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Scientists have been tracking asteroid 2024 YR4 since it popped onto the radar late last year. It is not headed towards the Earth anymore, but there is still a 4% chance it could collide with the Moon in 2032. According to a new study, which is still under peer review, if the asteroid does hit the lunar surface, it could dig out a crater over half a mile wide and blast debris straight into space.
Some of that junk could cross paths with the Earth, possibly creating a rare meteor shower and putting low-orbit satellites at risk. And while a space rock slamming into the Moon sounds like sci-fi, scientists are not ruling it out yet.
A few inches of rock, a lot of chaos
According to Fox News, the asteroid is small by cosmic standards - just 175 to 220 feet across, or roughly the height of a 15-story building. But with enough speed and the right angle, it could do real damage. On March 26, 2025, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope locked onto it, confirming its rocky, jagged surface and surprisingly reflective body. It is the tiniest object Webb has targeted so far.
If the asteroid does hit, simulations show it will strike somewhere on the Moon’s southern half. The result? A violent spray of lunar rock, with some bits possibly reaching the Earth's orbit. The debris would not wipe out satellites, but small fragments could pepper them for weeks - or months - causing damage, even temporary outages. “Hundreds to thousands of impacts from mm-sized debris” could be scattered across the satellite fleet, the researchers wrote.
What more to expect?
If even a sliver of that ejected lunar material hits Earth’s atmosphere, we would see it really fast. “The resulting meteor shower could last a few days and be spectacular,” the study says.
Because the debris would be moving slowly by meteor standards, the light show might be a little more subdued than usual but still visible.
The real concern, though, is not what we would see - it’s what we might lose. NASA’s upcoming Lunar Gateway, a space station planned to orbit the Moon, could face serious danger from impact fragments. Until 2028, when the asteroid comes back into view, scientists won’t have much more to go on.
FAQs
Is asteroid 2024 YR4 going to hit Earth?
No, current data shows it poses no threat to the planet.
Will it hit the Moon?
Yes, though the odds are low, about 4%. But there’s still a chance.
When would it strike the Moon?
If it does, scientists estimate the impact could happen in 2032.
