Canada elections: Liberal Party led by Mark Carney likely to form majority govt, say polls

According to Elections Canada, an estimates two million voters cast their ballot on Friday, the first of the four-day advance voting period

Toronto: As the last of the four days of advance voting ended on Monday, the ruling Liberal Party led by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney remained in position to form a majority government even though polls have started tightening and the opposition Conservatives appear to have the momentum.

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and his wife Diana Fox Carney wave from his plane in Halifax Stanfield International Airport during his Liberal Party election campaign tour in Goffs, Nova Scotia, Canada, on Monday. (REUTERS)

The Federal election is on April 28, and with just a week to go, poll aggregators pointed to a majority verdict, in favour of the ruling party. The polling aggregator 338 Canada gave the Liberals 184 seats against 126 to the Conservatives. Meanwhile, the agency Mainstreet Research had the Liberals at 172 seats, or exactly the majority mark required in the House of Commons, with the Conservatives at 136. In fact, Mainstreet’s daily tracking showed the Conservatives at 41% support, a point ahead of the Liberals.

Other polls, however, give the lead to the Liberals. Angus Reid Institute (ARI) survey on Monday showed them leading by five points, down a point since last week. Another poll, from Ipsos Public Affairs for the outlet Global News, showed the gap between the two parties narrowing to three points, with the Liberals ahead at 41%. With the threats from US President Donald Trump, which have led to the revival of the fortunes of the ruling party and buoyed its numbers, receding, the scenario is altering somewhat, as Ipsos’ CEO Darrell Bricker said, “At the present time, the Trump issue is kind of drifting out of focus and we’re moving back more to domestic issues, and particularly the issue of personal affordability.”

He added, “That’s an advantage for the Conservatives.”

According to Elections Canada, an estimates two million voters cast their ballot on Friday, the first of the four-day advance voting period.

The Conservatives and their leader Pierre Poilievre may be hoping that their platform, which will be released on Tuesday, will help them gain further traction heading into election day. It will the last of the major Federal parties to announce its platform, with Carney’s Liberals having done so on Saturday.

However, in a period of turmoil, Carney has been able to redirect the hankering for change towards the government after the departure of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. As Abacus Data CEO David Coletto stated on X, “He’s not offering to shake things up. He’s offering to calm things down. And that may be enough.”