A 10% increase in the mobility rate or movement of people outside their homes in Canada correlated to a 25% spike in weekly growth rates of Covid-19 infections, according to a study published on Wednesday in the Canadian Medical Association Journal (CMAJ).
The study was conducted by researchers from Public Health Ontario, University of Toronto, St Michael’s Hospital, Unity Health, Sinai Health System and University Health Network, Sunnybrook Research Institute, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Communications Research Centre Canada, Women’s College Hospital and the Public Health Agency of Canada.
It was released as Canada is facing a third wave of the coronavirus crisis with 6,151 new cases reported on Wednesday, an increase of 63% over the past 14 days, taking the total number of infections to 1,027,050, while 23,171 deaths have been recorded so far.
The study used anonymised smartphone data along with that on cases related to the Covid-19 pandemic in Canada over a time span covering March 15, 2020 to March 6 this year.
“This study shows that mobility strongly predicts Sars-CoV-2 growth rate up to three weeks in the future, and that stringent measures will continue to be necessary through spring 2021 in Canada,” lead author Dr Kevin Brown, an infectious diseases epidemiologist with Public Health Ontario, wrote, along with the co-authors of the research.
{{/usCountry}}“This study shows that mobility strongly predicts Sars-CoV-2 growth rate up to three weeks in the future, and that stringent measures will continue to be necessary through spring 2021 in Canada,” lead author Dr Kevin Brown, an infectious diseases epidemiologist with Public Health Ontario, wrote, along with the co-authors of the research.
{{/usCountry}}The researchers based their findings on the metrics of mobility threshold or the level required to control the spread of the coronavirus and the mobility gap.
“Mobility strongly and consistently predicts weekly case growth, and low levels of mobility are needed to control Sars-CoV-2 through spring 2021,” the authors wrote. They also pointed out that the mobility metrics they measured “can be used by public health officials and governments to estimate the level of restrictions needed to control the spread of Sars-CoV-2 and guide, in real-time, the implementation and intensity of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions to control the Covid-19 pandemic.”
The authors also pointed out that such interventions “remain the primary means of controlling” Covid-19 until “vaccination coverage is sufficient to achieve herd immunity”.
With the surge in cases, Canada’s largest province Ontario announced stay-at-home orders that came into effect on Thursday, while other provinces have also introduced more restrictive measures to combat the deadly virus.