Nuclear fallout factor in West Asia war if Iran nuclear sites are hit: Explained

In a letter to the United Nations, Iran foreign minister Aragchi has warned of “severe radioactive contamination risk” resulting from the strikes on the plant.

Iran foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi Sunday issued a warning over the risk of radiological release, a day after US-Israel struck Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant for a fourth time.

Modern sites are usually given multiple safety systems which can shut down reactors when needed to contain damage.

In a letter to the United Nations, Aragchi warned of “severe radioactive contamination risk” resulting from the strikes on the plant. Araghchi also took to social media platform X, warning that radioactive fallout would “end life in GCC capitals, not Tehran.”

The International Atomic Energy Agency on Saturday said that it had been informed by Iran about a projectile striking close to the premises of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. The UN nuclear watchdog said no increase in radiation levels had been reported. However, IAEA has, in the past, flagged the risk of nuclear fallout owing to strikes on such plants.

What are the aftermath and risks of a strike on a nuclear plant?

When nuclear facilities are struck, a large-scale radiological disaster still remains unlikely. However, the real risk is posed by what the strike damages inside the facility, Wired reported. This is owing to the risk of safety systems failing, or of an operational nuclear power plant being impacted directly. Modern sites are usually given multiple safety systems which can shut down reactors when needed to contain damage.

Araghchi's warning comes owing to the geography and infrastructure across the Gulf region. While the IAEA has reported no radiation or off-site contamination as such from strikes till now, the concerns are not just limited to the site of the impact.

One of the concerns are that much of the region is dependent on desalinated seawater, meaning systems that pull directly from the sea. If radioactive material were to enter marine environments in the region, it would spread through the marine ecosystem and also the infrastructure of these desalination plants which are used to supply drinking water to millions of people, according to the Wired report.

Therefore, the strikes on the Bushehr nuclear plant, situated along Iran’s Gulf coastline and close to neighbouring nations, have alarmed the UN nuclear watchdog and experts. While the plant has not been directly affected, experts have warned that any escalation involving coastal nuclear infrastructure could result in cross-border consequences.

What happens when a nuclear site is hit?

Where the site is hit and how much damage it has sustained are crucial in gauging whether safety systems in the plant would be effective. Following an impact, a reactor shuts down automatically within minutes, according to Wired. This stops the nuclear reaction.

However, despite shutdown, the reactor core continues to generate heat through radioactive decay. Therefore, this heat must also be brought under control, which is where cooling systems come in play. If these cooling systems have been damaged for any reason, the temperatures will continue to rise and in water-cooled reactors, this could lead to accumulation of hydrogen gas, increasing the risk of an explosion, Wired reported.

Following this, fuel rods inside the reactor will also begin to degrade, which risks the release of radioactive materials, including noble gases, volatile isotopes, long-lived isotopes and fuel particles.

How Bushehr strikes may impact the region?

While there is no radiation leak as of now, Bushehr plant has a live nuclear reactor, and it provides 1 to 2 per cent of Iran's total electricity, CNN reported.

Its location is also crucial in understanding the impact on the region. Bushehr is located right on the Persian Gulf, in close proximity to countries like Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE. Therefore, any nuclear incident could affect the Gulf countries, and put water supplies at risk, according to CNN.