Selling F-35s to Turkey Could Lead to War

Its president preaches the destruction of ‘Zionist Israel.’ Advanced U.S. jets would make that easier.

Turkey embodies everything it accuses Israel of being. Psychologists call it “projection”: When President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accuses Israel of encroaching on its neighbors’ territory in an attempt to establish “Greater Israel,” he’s mirroring his own desire to revive the Ottoman Empire, which once ruled those same regions. When he claims that Israel has “set its sights on” Turkey, he ignores his own prayers to Allah asking for Israel’s destruction. While claiming that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians, he denies the genocide his country committed against the Armenians. When he accuses Israel of attempting to turn the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem into a Jewish temple, he ignores that he turned the Hagia Sophia in Istanbul from a church into a mosque over international protests.

A US F35 fighter jet performs during the opening day of the Dubai Air Show, United Arab Emirates. (File photo) (AP)

Turkey was once the “Sick Man of Europe.” Now, like Qatar, it’s a dangerous Muslim brother of the Middle East. It stands by many bad actors in the region, supports terrorists and fuels instability. It allegedly has aided Pakistan against India, is reportedly building military bases in Sri Lanka, and, worst of all, hosts and protects Hamas members. When Israel last year killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, one of the planners of the Oct. 7 massacre, the Turkish Embassy in Tel Aviv lowered its flag to half-staff.

Israel opposes the integration of Turkish soldiers into the multinational force in the Gaza Strip—and it isn’t alone. Behind closed doors, the Saudis and Emiratis have also voiced strong reservations over Turkish involvement in Gaza. If Turkey is trying to preserve and nurture Hamas in Istanbul, it’s safe to assume it would do the same in Gaza.

Nothing good would come of allowing Turkish power in the region to increase. The U.S. ambassador to Turkey earlier this month tweeted that recent conversations about Washington’s potentially selling F-35 fighter jets to Ankara have been “fruitful.” This is deeply concerning. A senior Israeli official told me on Dec. 12 that the chance of the sale’s approval was around 40%, much higher than he thought a few weeks earlier.

Why would Turkey, already a global military power, need such an advanced fighter jet? The U.S. has at times considered sales of identical jets to the United Arab Emirates, and it recently signaled that it would try to sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia. Although Israel expressed concerns about such sales, it’s clear that the Saudis would use these aircraft to defend against Iranian aggression, not to practice attacking Tel Aviv. By contrast, Mr. Erdoğan preaches the destruction of “Zionist Israel.”

These fighter jets no doubt are intended for a future war with Israel. Reports indicate that Mr. Erdoğan’s government this year added the Jewish state to the Turkish “Red Book,” a core national-security document, as an existential threat to the country. Turkey did so under the false pretext that Israel seeks to conquer Anatolia.

More than one-third of Turks view Israel as the greatest threat to their country, with the U.S. in second place. While Mr. Erdoğan cozies up to President Trump to get the fighter jets he wants, his supporters see the U.S. and Israel as enemies.

Selling the jets to Turkey would give the U.S. a short-term profit at the cost of jeopardizing national security. It would unsettle the delicate balance in the region and diminish or even wipe out the Israel Defense Forces’ qualitative military edge, which the U.S. is committed to maintaining through congressional action. Michael Doran, a Middle East expert at the Hudson Institute, has suggested that if the U.S. wishes to keep the region calm, it must separate Israel and Turkey as much as possible. So why enable a future scenario in which F-35 jets conduct dogfights against each other?

The late historian Bernard Lewis said in 2011 that the day would come when Iran would become like Turkey and Turkey would become like Iran—the ayatollah regime would be replaced by a secular democracy, while the secular republic of Turkey would turn into a threatening Islamic empire. In June, American-made Israeli jets destroyed outdated Iranian F-14s. It would be a mistake to equip an increasingly aggressive and Islamist Turkey—which might in time supplant Iran as the most threatening country in the region—with far more advanced American weapons.

Mr. Segal is chief political commentator on Israel’s Channel 12 News and author of “A Call at 4 AM: Thirteen Prime Ministers and the Crucial Decisions that Shaped Israeli Politics.”