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How experts see mortgage rates moving as treasury yields decline slowly
Analysts predict that the 30-year mortgage rate could come down in the US over the next few years. Take a look at their forecast.
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US mortgage rates depend upon various factors, the most crucial is the 10-year Treasury yield. It is mainly on the basis of this parameter that the mortgage rate for the next few years can be determined.
Yahoo Finance reported that the Deloitte Global Economics Research Center has issued an updated forecast for the US economy, which includes projections for the 10-year Treasury yield. The site quoted Michael Wolf, a global economist, writing about these projections.
Projections for 10-year US Treasury yield
“We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to hover near 4.5% for the remainder of this year, despite a softening in economic data and a 50-basis-point cut from the Fed in the fourth quarter of 2025," Wolf explained. "The 10-year Treasury yield begins to decline slowly in 2026, falling to 4.1% by 2027 and remaining there through the end of 2029.”
Goldman Sachs agrees with this forecast. However, the Congressional Budget Office predicts a lower number. They estimate the yield to be 4.1% this year and fall to 4% in 2026, going down further to 3.9% through to 2029, Yahoo reports.
Going by these numbers, Yahoo Finance estimates the mortgage rates for the next five years to be 6.6-6.8% in 2025, 6.6-6.4% in 2026, 6.2-6.4% in 2027, 6.2-6.4% in 2028 and 6.2-6.4% in 2029. However, the website adds that there is always a likelihood that sudden events, such as a pandemic or economic shocks, can alter the calculations completely.
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Decline in mortgage rates
According to Forbes, the mortgage rates were above 7% in January this year. They came down to under seven percent over the next few months.
The article quotes Fannie Mae’s September Economic and Housing Outlook as saying, “We forecast mortgage rates to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.4% and 5.9%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 6.1% in our prior forecast.”
The National Association of Home Builders, on the other hand, predicts the 30-year mortgage rate to continue trending downwards, reaching 6.25% at the end of 2026 and 6% at the end of 2027.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s prediction for this year’s end is 6.5%. So, it seems to be a consensus that the 30-year mortgage rate will be around the 6.5% mark in the near future.
FAQs
What is the 30-year mortgage rate currently?
As per Bank Rate, the rate on October 19 is 6.28 percent.
What is the link between the 30-year mortgage rate and 10-year Treasury yield?
There is a direct relation between the two markers. As more investors purchase the treasury bond, the more it drives down the yield and the mortgage rate.
What is the mortgage rate predicted for next year?
Yahoo Finance forecasts the mortgage rate for next year to be 6.6-6.4% by the end of the year.
