Markets continue to be under pressure: Will October bring a breakout, or is it time to brace?

Whether October proves a breakout month or not, remember: equity investing is a 5-10 year game, not a 5-10 month sprint.

Markets have been under relentless pressure off late—equity indices are choppy, FPIs are unloading equities, corporate earnings and P/E ratios are softening, US tariff rhetoric is heating up, and commodities are surging; both silver and gold have spiked spectacularly. Add global monetary instability and geopolitical tensions, and the obvious question emerges: Will October bring a breakout, or is it time to brace?

The Bombay Stock Exchange building in Mumbai. (PTI)

1. Earnings & Valuations: Pockets of Opportunity Emerging
While earnings growth has slowed and multiples have compressed, the silver lining is that high-quality companies are gradually becoming available at more reasonable prices. For investors willing to look past the immediate slowdown, this is often where attractive entry points begin to form.

2. FPIs: Short-Term Traders, Not Long-Term Backers
FPIs often move with global liquidity and performance pressures; they are not the same as long-term strategic investors. In 2025 so far, foreign portfolio investors have withdrawn roughly ₹1.16–1.17 lakh crore from Indian equities—a reflection more of global rate shifts than India-specific collapse.

3. India’s Wall of Domestic SIP Flow
Domestic participation is now the stabiliser. July 2025 saw record ₹28,464 crore in SIP contributions and 91.1 million contributing SIP accounts— evidence that retail and domestic institutional flows are playing a far larger role in market stability than before.

4. Monsoon, Inflation & the Rural Engine
The IMD’s forecast for 2025 puts monsoon rainfall at about 106% of the long-period average, which supports rural demand and helps cool food prices. Indeed, retail inflation has eased sharply in recent months—CPI slowed to 1.55% in July 2025, giving households more purchasing power and reducing the RBI’s immediate need for aggressive tightening.

5. Global Realignment May Be Playing into India’s Hands
Beyond economics, geopolitics is undergoing a tectonic shift. India has embraced a multi-aligned posture, maintaining ties with the US, Russia, and other blocs, while positioning itself as a reliable partner in global supply chains. Western companies searching for “China +1” options are increasingly betting on India. This global realignment could accelerate manufacturing, exports, and capital flows into the country over the next decade.

6. The Rupee & the Capex Cycle
The rupee has traded in the high-87s to around ~88/US$ recently and saw a spike to ~88.20 on 29 August (prompting market attention and intervention). That relative stability, combined with a nascent revival in private capex after several muted years, gives investors some comfort on earnings prospects.

7. Green Shoots Need Stronger Roots
At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meet in China, President Putin’s assertion that “you cannot talk to India or China in that way…the colonial era is over” highlighted India’s rising geopolitical stature. Domestically, the GST Council’s sweeping rationalisation promises to lift consumption, support manufacturing, and spur employment over time.

Yet, despite these supportive signals—alongside softer inflation, a strong monsoon, and early capex stirrings—equity markets have not staged the rebound many had anticipated. That lingering despondency is a reminder that green shoots exist, but are not yet strong enough to change sentiment on their own.

8. The Investing Mantra: Alpha Isn’t Born in Sunshine
When everything is green—the easy gains are likely already taken. Real alpha often appears when sentiment is bleak and prices are depressed. The current red-market backdrop is precisely the kind of environment where early, disciplined buyers can capture disproportionate gains.

So, What Should You Do?

• If you seek growth (can stomach volatility): focus on financials, capex/industrial plays, technology services and renewable-linked industrials; build exposure systematically (step-up SIPs or staged lumps) rather than trying to pick a bottom.
• If you seek stability: stick with large-cap or broad index funds, keep 5–10% in gold/silver as a hedge, and hold some dry powder (cash/debt) to deploy if markets correct further.

Bottom Line
Green markets are safe—but often less profitable. Choppy markets are messy—yet fertile. The monsoon looks supportive, inflation has softened, domestic flows are strong, the rupee has largely held, capex is stirring, GST reform will lift consumption, and geopolitics is tilting in India’s favour. Whether October proves a breakout month or not, remember: equity investing is a 5-10 year game, not a 5-10 month sprint. Those who remain disciplined through turbulence usually reap the greatest rewards.

Sandeep Walunj is group chief marketing officer at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

The views expressed in the article are author's own and do not reflect HT's editorial stance. Market investing is susceptible to financial risks.