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Can the MVA government overcome ideological flashpoints and survive?
An Assembly and Lok Sabha election, unexpected drama and ideological upheavals – 2019 saw a major twist in Maharashtra’s political scenario, which could have nationwide
An Assembly and Lok Sabha election, unexpected drama and ideological upheavals – 2019 saw a major twist in Maharashtra’s political scenario, which could have nationwide repercussion in the coming year.
The state voted thumpingly in favour of the saffron alliance in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha elections in May. The general assumption of a similar verdict was turned on its head as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could not meet its expectations, winning only 105 seats in October this year.
What happened next was a page straight out of a political drama series – the 30-year-old saffron alliance broke, bringing together three ideologically opposing three parties to form the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government. Even as the MVA talks were underway, the BJP’s desperate ploy to win back power led to the most short-lived, three-day government in Maharashtra, with the BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis and Nationalist Congress Party’s Ajit Pawar joining hands. They reminded Maharashtra of an earlier split in the Congress that led to the formation of the Progressive Democratic Front (Porogami Lokshahi Aghadi) government led by Sharad Pawar in 1978. Soon, the three parties came together to form a new government, marking a beginning of a new political synergy. The big question for 2020 is how long can the MVA government last?
The MVA has been born out of a common aim of keeping the BJP out of power. It is headed by Uddhav Thackeray, the first from Thackeray family to take public office and one who has no prior electoral, legislative or government experience. The BJP is the glue that binds this political alliance, but can the ideological differences between the Shiv Sena and the two secular parties – Nationalist Congress Party and Congress – weaken the resolve?
Going ahead, the three parties will need to redefine themselves. For instance, can the Shiv Sena afford to give up the Hindutva vote bank completely to the BJP? Can the Congress afford to align with the Sena?
The MVA government will have to face many other challenges. The state is in poor financial health with an estimated debt burden of ₹4.71 lakh crore and additional ₹2.08 lakh crore of loans raised by public undertakings under its control. Despite the gap between revenue receipts and expenditure widening, the Thackeray government has to deliver on the promised loan waiver to farmers, social schemes and infrastructure projects. “The government will face continuous uncertainty for the period it lasts, in the backdrop of the first jolt the three-party alliance got on November 23, when Ajit Pawar made an attempt to split the NCP and joined hands with Devendra Fadnavis. It was just a glimpse of the possibilities in the future too. We continue to be wary,” said a Congress leader.
In his recent interview, former chief minister and BJP’s Maharashtra face Devendra Fadnavis tried to hint that both Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar were in know of the plan of BJP-NCP alliance. He also said there is an untold story from the Narendra Modi-Sharad Pawar meeting on November 20 meeting - when the talks between three parties were at the peak - and it would come out at an appropriate time.
“The three-party alliance is a conspiracy to keep the single largest party (the BJP) outside the power,” he said. While expressing the angst, Fadnavis said he has not lost hope of coming back to power. “Anything can happen in politics.”
Having governments of the same party at the Centre and state proves to be beneficial. After a gap of 15 years, the state government is being led by a coalition that is not in power at the Centre.
Political observers said the bitterness between former allies turned opponents, the Sena and BJP, may have repercussions for the state. “The Uddhav Thackeray-led government’s opposition for the bullet train project or implementation of CAA may not go down well with the Central leadership under Narendra Modi. In turn, if the Centre adopts a policy to arm twist, it could prove dear to the state. In any case, the Thackeray government will not get help from Modi like Fadnavis government,” said a senior bureaucrat, who did not want to be quoted.
Within a fortnight of coming to power, the MVA saw its first test in the form of the CAA and over Savarkar, the Hindutva ideologue. The Sena’s somersault on the bill was forced by the Congress conveying its unhappiness on the party’s support to the bill in Lok Sabha. On CAA and students’ protests, Thackeray unexpectedly went all out and compared the violence in Jamia Millia to colonial massacre at Jallianwallah Baug.
The statement led to Pawar, on a lighter note, saying that it convinced him that their government was on track and would last full five years. But not everyone in the Sena was convinced that the CM should have made such an extreme statement. “We have been speaking out against Bangladeshi immigrants for so long. This statement was a stretch, but the mood of the country is against this Bill,” said a senior Sena legislator.
Surendra Jondhale, a political analyst, said: “The citizenship bill was the first major flashpoint for the alliance. If such issues keep erupting, it will lead to political uncertainty. If there are political differences there would be greater political instability in the state.”
“The Sena will continue to make such statements to show they have not forgotten the Hindutva ideology. They should speak about the CMP to gain people’s trust,” he said.
Sena’s Sanjay Raut, one of the architects of the alliance, said the party did not take a U-turn on the Bill, but opposed it as their queries were not answered. He believes despite the diverse ideologies of the three parties, the MVA will complete its full term. He said, “Those who couldn’t sustain the government for 80 hours now think this government will not last for 80 days… This strong government with a 170-member majority is here to stay for five years.” NCP chief spokesperson Nawab Malik agreed pointing out there was already a future map in place for the three parties to contest district council polls together. “The parties have come together against the BJP and have resolved to contest the elections for the post of president and vice-president of the district councils together at the local level. The two posts will be shared on the basis of numbers in the local body.’’ “The MVA is not formed to analyse Savarkar. It is formed to fulfil the CMP devised for development of Maharashtra,” said Sachin Sawant, state Congress spokesperson.
Leaders from the three parties feel Sharad Pawar, the architect of the three-party alliance, is the biggest hope for them and will ensure they complete the five-year term. Political analyst Pratap Asbe said, “By spearheading the polls, he ensured success for his party and then derailed the revolt by Ajit Pawar. He has shown that he is not only the boss in the party, but also undisputed leader of the state.” While the BJP leadership is still determined to grab an opportunity to come back to power, all is not well. Disgruntled leaders all from the Other Backward Class like Eknath Khadse, Pankaja Munde and Ram Shinde have spoken against the state leadership and targeted Fadnavis. Many of the MLAs and leaders who had joined the BJP from other parties ahead of the elections too are believably willing to come back to their original parties like the Congress and NCP.
The BJP under the leadership of Fadnavis had swept almost all local body elections in five years. The three-party coalition is now aiming to marginalise the BJP in the local bodies. It remains to be seen whether they can pull this off.
