E-Paper
Chandigarh: Coming up, a warmer than usual October
As per IMD, there is a 65% chance that maximum temperature will remain above normal in October and an over 75% chance for the minimum temperature to also remain above normal
Residents expecting cooler weather in October may have to wait for November, as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast warmer than normal temperatures this month.
Using probability models for the long-range forecast, as per IMD, there is a 65% chance that maximum temperature will remain above normal in October and an over 75% chance for the minimum temperature to also remain above normal.
The average maximum temperature for the month of October is 32.2°C and average minimum temperature is 17.3°C.
El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region and are expected to continue over the coming season as well. This, as per IMD Chandigarh director Manmohan Singh, can lead to higher temperatures in Chandigarh.
Singh added, “Because of the prevailing conditions, rain will be unlikely for the next few days and with humidity falling down, temperature can rise by 2-3°C. This dry weather is likely to lead to above average temperatures.”
Normal rainfall likely
Meanwhile, rainfall is likely to stay around normal in the post monsoon season, which starts from October 1 and extends up to December, as per the same probability models used by IMD.
Singh added, “This is a transition period before winter starts. During this, wind patterns change and northerly winds, which are dry in nature, become the most dominant. An anticyclone movement also forms over the region, which limits the number of Western Disturbances (WD) that approach the region and their effect. WDs, anyway, are the most likely way to get any rain in the coming months.”
After withdrawal of monsoon on Saturday, the maximum temperature went down from 34.5°C to 34.2°C on Sunday, 1.6 degrees above normal. On the other hand, the minimum temperature rose slightly from 22°C to 22.2°C, 0.1 degree above normal.
In the next three days, the maximum temperature may rise up to 35°C, while the minimum temperature will remain between 21°C and 22°C.
