Haryana assembly elections: Anti-incumbency, farmers angst, bickering can spoil BJPs poll plans
While the BJP is taking a third shot at the power, hoping to cash in on its win in the Parliamentary elections leading to the formation of party led NDA government for a third consecutive term at the Centre, the principal Opposition party in the state, the Congress, is gung-ho over its vastly improved outing in the Lok Sabha polls
A decade of anti-incumbency for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) coupled with farmers’ angst seems to have emerged as the key factors influencing the October 1 Haryana assembly elections.
While the BJP is taking a third shot at the power, hoping to cash in on its win in the Parliamentary elections leading to the formation of party led NDA government for a third consecutive term at the Centre, the principal Opposition party in the state, the Congress, is gung-ho over its vastly improved outing in the Lok Sabha polls. For the record, the vote percentage of Congress climbed to 43.68% in 2024 Lok Sabha polls from 28.51% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, whereas the vote share of the BJP fell from 58.21% in 2019 to 46.10% in 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Jats versus non-Jats
Facing a decade long anti-incumbency in the state, the effect of which also showed in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP depends a lot on consolidation of non-Jats in Haryana. In fact, polarisation of a sizable non-Jat electorate has been key to BJP’s success story in 2014 and 2019 assembly polls. The appointment of a Punjabi-Khatri, Manohar Lal Khattar, as chief minister in 2014 had helped BJP consolidate its hold over the non-Jats in the state.
Jats, the single largest community in Haryana, accounting for about 25% of state’s population, have traditionally stood behind the Congress, the INLD and the JJP as far electoral arithmetic goes. However, the Jats squarely consolidated behind the Congress in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, a fact evident from the diminished vote share of JJP and INLD at 0.87 % and 1.74 % respectively in 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Restive peasantry
The restive and unpredictable peasantry in the state has kept the state government on the edge. Following the scrapping of the three contentious Agri-Marketing laws by the Central government, the farmers had demanded that cases registered against them during the farmers’agitation be dropped. The list of their grouse included resistance to the e-governance module of procurement – the Meri Fasal Mera Byora (MFMB) web portal. The state government on its part has tried to keep them in good humour by ensuring expeditious procurement of food grains and timely payment of the minimum support price (MSP) and crop damage compensation. In fact, the state government recently announced that it will buy all the 24 crops on minimum support price in Haryana.
A Panjab University based political scientist Prof Ashutosh Kumar says that after the Lok Sabha poll results, the Congress seems to be on a strong wicket. “The Congress has the momentum. It has been three months since Lok Sabha results came out and nothing much has changed,’’ Prof Kumar said.
He said that a strong anti-incumbency factor, leadership issues, bickering in the BJP and farmers angst will harm BJPs prospects in the assembly polls. “The BJP though has an advantage in terms of Haryana’s umbilical cord connection with the NDA government at the Centre and its reliance on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vote catching skills,’’ Prof Kumar said.