Coronavirus shows no signs of slowing in Maharashtra

The Covid-19 numbers coming every day from Maharashtra dwarfs all other states. In the past week, India’s worst-hit state reported over 75% more daily cases than

The Covid-19 numbers coming every day from Maharashtra dwarfs all other states. In the past week, India’s worst-hit state reported over 75% more daily cases than Tamil Nadu — the state with the second-highest number of new cases.

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In the past week, until July 17, the state recorded more than 7,700 new cases a day on an average, compared to 6,500 the week before that — a statistic that highlights how cases are still growing in the state. The doubling rate of cases — the number of days it takes for a given number of infections to double — in the state is currently 23.7 days, slightly higher than the national average of 20.6 days.

If Maharashtra’s 300,000 cases are divided into bands of 100,000 each, we see that the first 100,000 cases took 96 days (June 12) since the first case was reported in the state. The state touched 200,000 cases 22 days later on July 4. The latest 100,000 cases, however, have come in just two weeks.

The positivity rate, too, has shown no signs of slowing down. In the past two months, the weekly average positivity rate in the state has grown from 17.6% to 23.6%, despite a three-fold increase in testing. This means that currently, nearly a quarter of all tests conducted in the state are turning out positive — one of the most alarming trends coming out of the state.

In the two other states with high caseloads – Tamil Nadu and Delhi – as the testing has been ramped up, the positivity rate has remained less than half the number in Maharashtra. In Tamil Nadu, the average positivity rate for the week ending July 17 was 10.2% and in Delhi,it was 7.8%.