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Long delayed, monsoon likely to arrive in Delhi on Saturday: IMD

ByJayashree Nandi, , New Delhi
Jul 10, 2021 02:23 AM IST

The monsoon will also cover the remaining parts of western Uttar Pradesh and parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan in the next 24 hours, IMD added.

After slowing in mid-June, and then entering a 10-day lull, the monsoon has started reviving and is set to finally advance over Delhi on Saturday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said — almost a month after its initial prediction of June 12-15.

A policeman checks vehicles amid a mild shower at Connaught Place, in New Delhi, Wednesday.(PTI)

The monsoon will also cover the remaining parts of western Uttar Pradesh and parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan in the next 24 hours, IMD added.

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It said the conditions were becoming favourable for the advance of monsoon over the remaining parts of the country between July 11 and 12, and to intensify further in the next three or four days. “Widespread rainfall is likely over northwest India, including Delhi, over the next five days. Besides, isolated heavy rainfall is expected in Delhi and surrounding regions from July 11 -13,” IMD said in its Friday bulletin.

“The showers will intensify on July 11, with good rainfall likely across Delhi, and will continue throughout the week at least,” said a senior IMD scientist who asked not to be named. Monsoon showers are expected to hit Gurugram and Noida on Saturday as well, he added.

This is already the most delayed monsoon in the Capital for at least 17 years, for which the weather office has records, going back to the 2006, when the seasonal showers hit the city on July 9. Monsoon usually arrives in the city by June 27-28.

The monsoon was racing through the country in early June, and the Met predicted last month that it would hit Delhi by June 15, the earliest in the period for which data is available, before it suddenly slowed down and appeared to hit a “break” phase.

Since June 1, the country has received 6% less rain than it normally does. Delhi has received only 42% of the rain it receives in that time, while Haryana has got 71%, Chandigarh has received 60%, and Punjab has got 64%, IMD data showed.

“During the next 24 hours, monsoon is likely to make its onset over Delhi and other parts of northwest India. Conditions are favourable because easterlies have started coming towards this region... The circulation features and expected weather support the advance of monsoon to northwest India. We saw a spell of rain on Thursday evening as well, and there is some clouding,” said K Sathi Devi, head, national weather forecasting centre.

A low-pressure area is likely to form over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal around July 11, and will further intensify rains over west and central India. “When the low-pressure area develops over Bay of Bengal, good rainfall is expected in its path.

To begin with, India Meteorological Department (IMD)‘s May 31 forecast for monsoon onset over Kerala raised hopes of early showers across the country. But this was revised, at the last minute on May 30, to declare the onset of monsoon for June 3. IMD, on June 11, forecast that monsoon would advance to remaining parts of the country outside south Rajasthan and Kutch during the next six to seven days. But the northern limit of monsoon has been stationary. The Northern Limit of southwest monsoon has been stationary since June 19 at Barmer, Bhilwara, Dholpur, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar. IMD initially forecast that monsoon would make onset over Delhi by June 15, around 12 days ahead of its normal onset date. But the weather office gradually deferred it to July 10, nearly a month later than its initial prediction.

Independent weather experts backed the latest Met’s prediction.

“Easterly winds have started blowing in, and will completely replace the westerly winds. There is already an increase in moisture levels due to easterly winds. During the next two weeks we expect widespread rains across the country, including northwest India,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president (climate change and meteorology) at Skymet weather, a private forecaster.

He added that the showers will bring Delhi some long-awaited respite from the heatwave conditions. Delhi recorded a maximum temperature of 38.2 degrees Celsius on Friday, two notches above normal, but down from 41.8°C the previous day.

“The day temperature will drop to around 34°C,” Palawat said.

So far, Delhi has seen heatwave conditions from June 29 to July 2 and then on July 7 and 8.

Palawat also said that, according to Skymet’s forecast, Delhi is likely to have a “normal” monsoon. “The monsoon will most likely be normal with 103% of long-period average (LPA),” he said. LPA is considered the normal range of temperatures and rainfall, which helps note deviation. Monsoon rainfall in the range of 96%-104% of LPA is considered ‘normal’.

Easterly winds are also likely to strengthen at lower levels over northwest India in coming three or four days. Under the influence of these conditions, widespread rainfall is very likely over northwest India in the next five days, said the weather office.

Moderate to severe thunderstorms accompanied with frequent cloud to ground lightning is very likely over Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during next 24 hours. This may cause injuries leading to casualties to people and animals outdoors.

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