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Will BJP’s Rajbhar gamble pay in east U.P?
Rajbhar has a considerable presence in Ghazipur, Mau, Ballia, and other regions in Purvanchal. The BJP lost major assembly seats in the 2022 assembly poll in the state when SBSP was an ally of the Samajwadi Party.
GHAZIPUR: The crucial seventh and final phase of the Lok Sabha polls, spanning across eastern Uttar Pradesh, will be a significant test for both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ally, the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP). The SBSP has a considerable vote bank in the region that could influence the outcome for any party.
In the caste jigsaw of Purvanchal, SBSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar is a major driving force for the BJP, especially in the Ghazipur and Mau regions. The BJP needed the SBSP because its own Rajbhar face, Anil Rajbhar, lacks the charisma and support base.
In the absence of a caste census, exact figures are not known, but the SBSP claims that Rajbhars and affiliated caste groups comprise 15 to 17% of the vote share in eastern Uttar Pradesh. In the Ghosi Lok Sabha seat alone, the Rajbhar vote share is around 1.60 lakh, and in Ballia Lok Sabha, it is somewhere around 40,000 to 45,000.
The Rajbhar vote bank is crucial for the BJP. The party lost a significant number of assembly seats in Ghazipur, Mau, and Ballia in the 2022 state assembly polls when SBSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar was an ally of the Samajwadi Party.
Just a year before the Lok Sabha polls, in July 2023, Rajbhar made another opportunistic decision and joined the NDA alliance.
The significance of the Rajbhar factor for the BJP can be assessed by the fact that in the 2022 state assembly election, the BJP lost all seven assembly seats in Ghazipur to the Samajwadi Party and its then-ally, the SBSP.
The BJP lost all seven seats in Ghazipur district—Jakhania (SC), Saidpur (SC), Ghazipur, Jangipur, Zamania, Mohammadabad, and Zahoorabad. BJP candidates were in second position in all these seats.
In Mau district, the BJP also lost three out of four assembly seats to the Samajwadi Party and its then-ally SBSP in the 2022 assembly poll. The Mau (Sadar), Ghosi, and Muhammadabad Gohana seats went to the SP-SBSP, with only the Madhuban seat won by BJP’s Ram Bilas Chauhan.
What the BJP gains from Om Prakash Rajbhar will only be clear on June 4 when EVMs are unsealed to declare the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
GHOSI LOK SABHA
Om Prakash Rajbhar is facing a litmus test of his three-decade political career in this Lok Sabha election. His son, Arvind Rajbhar, is contesting from the Ghosi Lok Sabha seat, which was won by the BSP’s Atul Rai in the 2019 election.
Along with Rajbhar, the BJP’s image is also at stake in Ghosi. Om Prakash Rajbhar’s past is haunting him in Ghosi, as all the controversial statements he made during the 2022 assembly polls in Mau, Ghazipur, and the rest of the region against Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and the upper castes are under public scrutiny.
