Ajit Pawar's revolt alters Western Maharashtra’s politics & Baramati’s dynamics

All eyes will now be on Baramati, the family bastion of Pawars for more than five decades that the BJP has been desperately trying to wrest.

If there’s any region in state where the impact of the revolt by Ajit Pawar will be felt the most, it is Western Maharashtra.

Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister and NCP leader Ajit Pawar during the party meeting at MET Bandra, in Mumbai, India, on Wednesday. (Photo by Satish Bate/ Hindustan Times) (Hindustan Times) (HT_PRINT)

And all eyes will now be on Baramati, the family bastion of Pawars for more than five decades that the BJP has been desperately trying to wrest.

Known to be Nationalist Congress Party’s (NCP) stronghold, Western Maharashtra has played a role in Sharad Pawar-led party’s quest for power in the state.

After all, the NCP tagged 22 of the total 58 seats in the region during 2019 assembly polls, and enhanced its tally in state from 41 seats in 2014 to 54 in 2019. In 2020, the NCP’s tally came down to 53 as the party lost bypolls in Pandharpur-Mangalwedha constituency to the BJP. Of the remaining 36 seats in the region, the BJP had bagged 18, Shiv Sena four, Congress eight and others six.

Six months earlier in the Lok Sabha polls, western Maharashtra elected three out of four NCP MPs in Supriya Sule (Baramati), Shriniwas Patil (Satara), and Amol Kolhe (Shirur).

In the current power struggle, Sule, Kolhe and Patil have backed Pawar senior, while party’s fourth MP Sunil Tatkare from Raigad is with Ajit camp and has been named the new state unit chief.

On Wednesday, when the Ajit camp held its show of strength at MET, Bandra, 17 of the 22 MLAs from western Maharashtra were present. At the same time, the other five MLAs were present at YB Chavan auditorium where Pawar senior delivered a speech.

With Ajit Pawar taking away a majority of the legislators, and attempting to establish firm control over the party, the region is headed for multi-dimensional politics, with both the NCP camps eyeing the existing vote share in the upcoming elections.

According to political observers, the main contest in Maharashtra post-rebellion will now be between the BJP on one hand and two NCP factions on the other. If the Ajit camp fights the Assembly and Lok Sabha polls in alliance with the BJP, the combine will have a massive advantage in the region.

“The senior Pawar certainly has sympathy on his side, especially among the older party workers. However, many in the party believe Ajit is their future. Considering Ajit’s grip over young workers, his connect with the masses, and the ability to swing votes in party’s favour, it is going to be beneficial for the BJP-NCP alliance if it works out,” said Chitra Lele, professor of Political Science.

The biggest impact of the altered political equations is likely to be felt in Baramati. Voters of Baramati Lok Sabha constituency, a rain shadow region, have shown their affection overwhelmingly for Sharad Pawar in the past.

The Pawar senior was first elected from Baramati in 1967 and since then till 2009, he has represented this seat either in the state assembly or the Lok Sabha. After Pawar decided to switch to Rajya Sabha, his daughter Supriya contested Lok Sabha polls from the hometown in 2009 and won by a handsome margin of around four lakh votes.

However, Ajit had a large contribution in her victory. If Sule was struggling to win in 2014 and 2019 polls – although she improved her winning margin subsequently – Ajit ensured she eventually sailed through safely.

In 2019, the BJP had put up all its might to defeat Sule, but the hard work and efforts taken by Ajit paid off and the margin of her victory increased from around 70,000 votes in 2014 to 1.54 lakh votes.

However, with equations between Ajit and Sule no longer the same, and the BJP too having created a base here, Baramati may be headed for a fight that will attract national attention once again in polls scheduled eight months from now.

“Without Ajit’s support, it will be difficult for Sule to retain the constituency. At the same time, Ajit’s margin in the assembly polls might also come down with Pawar senior and Supriya in the rival camp,” said Lele.

Politically, since 2009, Ajit has repeatedly exhibited that he has better connect with the voters in Baramati which helped him emerge as a leader in his own right after being in politics for four decades. In 2019, he was elected from Baramati with a margin of 1.65 lakh votes against his nearest rival from the BJP, Gopichand Padalkar.

The NCP workers from the region, however, hope that it will be beneficial if both camps join hands and face elections together.

“We have unmatched respect for Sharad Pawar saheb, but considering the need of the hour, he should let Ajit dada run the party. It will benefit everyone, without anyone being a loser,” said Pradeep Deshmukh, NCP spokesperson, who has sided with Ajit Pawar camp in this battle.