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Covid-19 cases dip: Is Mumbai’s second wave curve flattening?

As the number of cases in the city has been on the decline on a week-on-week basis (between April 4 and April 24), state Covid-19 taskforce member Dr Shashank Joshi said that the flattening of the curve has started in the city
By Mehul R Thakkar, Mumbai
PUBLISHED ON APR 26, 2021 12:49 AM IST

As the number of cases in the city has been on the decline on a week-on-week basis (between April 4 and April 24), state Covid-19 taskforce member Dr Shashank Joshi said that the flattening of the curve has started in the city. However, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has maintained that the situation will have to be monitored until April 30, before claiming that the decline of the second wave in the city has started. The worrying part is the number of deaths going up on weekly basis.

As the testing in the week between April 18 to 24 has gone down, the positivity rate too has gone down simultaneously. The positivity rate in the first week between April 4 and 10 was around 20% that went down to around 18% between April 11 to 17, followed by around 17% between April 18 to 24.

According to the state health department data, between April 4 and April 10, 69,037 cases were reported followed by 190 deaths. During the same period, 341,614 tests were conducted.

Further, in the next week between April 11 and April 17, 60,506 cases were reported followed by 357 deaths. During the same period, 335,187 tests were conducted. In the last week, between April 18 and April 24, 51,128 cases were reported followed by 425 deaths. In this period 297,738 tests were conducted.

During this period, the active cases went up from 73,281 on April 4 to 91,110 on April 11 and then recorded a decline to 86,443 on April 17, to 78,226, as of April 24.

Municipal commissioner Iqbal Singh Chahal on Thursday said, “Although the daily number of patients in Mumbai has stabilised between 8,000 and 10,000 in the last 15 days, the next 15 days are even more important.” According to Chahal, it is only after April 30 one will be in a position to say whether the number of cases being reported in the city is witnessing a downfall or not.

On Sunday, 5,498 cases were reported in the city followed by 64 deaths. This took the total case tally to 627,644 and toll to 12,790. The recovery rate in the city is 85% with 537,944 recoveries, and mortality is 2.03%. There are 75,498 active cases in the city. Dharavi reported 37 cases taking the total to 6,325.

Meanwhile, Dr Shashank Joshi, said, “Whenever there is a peak, the number of deaths tends to increase. However, this all will come into control within the next two weeks. For now, we can say that the flattening of the curve has started in the city and pockets of the state. However, we do not need to be relaxed but only be prepared and cautious anticipating the third wave.”

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