Maharashtra politics heats up ahead of Assembly Speaker poll on July 6

Political developments in Maharashtra over the past few days have led to speculations over the fate of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, comprising the Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Congress

Political developments in Maharashtra over the past few days have led to speculations over the fate of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, comprising the Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Congress.

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A series of meetings are happening in both the camps – between key leaders from the state’s ruling parties as well as among Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders in Mumbai and Delhi – fuelling speculations ahead of the monsoon session of the state legislature beginning on Monday, and the crucial election of the Speaker of Legislative Assembly, which is likely on July 6.

MVA leaders are also alleging that the BJP-led Centre is trying to destabilise the government through central investigative agencies. The Enforcement Directorate (ED) seems to be closing in on NCP leader and former state home minister Anil Deshmukh.

Deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar’s relatives are under scanner of investigating agencies as the purchase of a cooperative sugar unit in an auction is being probed. ED has also taken action against Jarandeshwar Sugar Mills, which is believed to be under control of Pawar’s relatives. It is part of the alleged irregularities in the Maharashtra State Co-operative Bank – the apex bank of cooperative banks in the state – which is under the control of NCP and Congress.

State BJP has also demanded a CBI probe against Pawar and transport minister Anil Parab – a close aide of chief minister Uddhav Thackeray – to investigate corruption charges levelled against them by former Mumbai Police officer Sachin Vaze.

Shiv Sena legislator Pratap Sarnaik is facing action by ED in a money laundering case.

State BJP leaders are predicting the MVA government to fall in the next few weeks. Opposition leader Devendra Fadnavis’s frequent visits to Delhi have further fuelled the speculations.

The action against the MVA government leaders prompted key leaders from the ruling parties to deliberate on how to handle the current crisis and counter the BJP-led Central government’s offensive against it. MVA leaders are also suspecting that the BJP would try encourage defections in NCP or Sena to pull down the government. The pressure being built by investigation agencies is being seen by them as BJP’s attempts to break MVA to pull down its government.

NCP chief Sharad Pawar met Thackeray early this week, followed by several rounds of meeting between top state leaders from the three parties. Shiv Sena parliamentarian Sanjay Raut’s meetings with Pawar and Thackeray are also considered to be significant amid the developments.

“The leaders mainly discussed the action against Deshmukh and the threat of similar action against other leaders. A deliberation over combating pressure from the Centre was primarily held. The leaders discussed the counter plan by similar actions against BJP leaders by using the files and cases of corruption that had evolved during their five-year rule,” said a senior Congress leader.

A section of the leaders from the three ruling parties also feel that they should aggressively go after BJP leaders to combat the action initiated by the central agencies against their leaders. One of the senior leaders from the ruling parties, during their recent meeting, believably compared the pressure tactics by BJP against West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee and expressed the need to go her way.

In these backdrops, the Speaker’s election is being seen as a crucial event. The defeat of the MVA candidate would lead to the collapse of Thackeray government.

In their meetings, MVA leaders also discussed about the risk of cross-voting and the drop in the support of legislators during the election to the post of speaker. BJP leaders have dared MVA to prove their majority on the floor of the House during the election to the speaker. It would be a Herculean task before the ruling parties to retain the number – 169 – garnered during the confidence vote in November 2019, when the government was formed. Polling fewer votes on the floor of the Assembly than the 2019 trust vote figure would indicate trouble for the ruling coalition.

“It would not just be embarrassing for the ruling parties even if the number dropped even by a few votes, but would also lead to an uncertainty among our legislators. BJP will pull out all the stops to orchestrate a split in MVA, especially in the backdrop of the letter by Sarnaik. All the three ruling parties will have put all their strength behind to ensure the victory in the poll,” said an NCP leader. In his letter to CM, Sarnaik had mentioned that Congress and NCP are “trying to weaken the coalition and there seems to be veiled support from the Centre”

“The speaker will be from Congress and we will win the election with majority,” state Congress chief Nana Patole said.

However, BJP’s Ashish Shelar dared the ruling parties to hold the Speaker’s election and said that they will ensure MVA’s defeat on the floor of the House.

Fadnavis said that his party would open the cards at an appropriate time. “It is not clear if the MVA is in position to face the election. Let them announce it first. We will open our cards after it,” he said.

Fadnavis’s meetings with BJP’s top leadership, especially with Union home minister Amit Shah in Delhi this week has led to further speculations. A section of BJP leaders feels that even if political developments in Maharashtra do not happen immediately, they are bound to happen in the near future.

“Fadnavis has made it clear that he would not be part of the Union cabinet, which is expected to be expanded in the next few days. It seems that he has convinced the party high command that changes in Maharashtra are possible only if he is camped in the state. Secondly, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections are very crucial for us and they are likely to be fought under Fadnavis. The state leadership feels that BMC is Shiv Sena’s weak point and it could be exploited to come back in power in the state. If pulling the government down is not possible immediately, it could happen in the near future,” a senior BJP leader and former minister said.

Raut has rubbished the speculations.

“Leaders keep meeting their political bosses from the party. Dialogue between leaders from different parties is also not new to our political culture. There’s nothing more to read from these meetings. MVA government is doing well and will complete its term. We are not going to bow to the pressure by the Centre, which has been using Central agencies against us,” Raut said.

Political analyst Hemant Desai said that though BJP is trying to topple the government, it is unlikely to succeed anytime soon.

“I don’t think there will be any immediate political development in the state. BJP is trying to use or misuse Central agencies to destabilise the government in Maharashtra. If it cannot topple the government, its aim is to at least defame the ruling parties and capitalise the situation in the next election. BMC elections, scheduled to be held early next year, are crucial for BJP and Shiv Sena, and the political happenings in the run up to the polls are likely to be crucial,” he said.