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No wave in western Maharashtra as independents, rebels dominate election battleground
The historically Congress-NCP bastion has no clear wave favouring either MVA or Mahayuti as individual candidates, rebels, and hyper-local issues dominate the electoral discourse
Pune: A week before voting, Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) chief Sharad Pawar surprised many by launching attacks on his former protege, Dilip Walse Patil, during a rally at Ambegaon, labelling him a “traitor”. The crowd’s enthusiastic response seemed to embolden the veteran leader, who repeated similar barbs at subsequent rallies. This marked a high-decibel finale to the campaign that ended on Monday for the November 20 Maharashtra’s assembly polls.
Western Maharashtra, with 70 assembly seats across six districts, remains a crucial battleground in the state having a 288-member house. Yet, the region, historically a Congress-NCP bastion, has no clear wave favouring either the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) or the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. Instead, individual candidates, rebels, and hyper-local issues dominate the electoral discourse.
“A fragmented contest has muddied the waters,” said political analyst Mahesh Sane. “Western Maharashtra has always leaned towards the Congress-NCP alliance, but the NCP split and shifting local dynamics have made this election unpredictable.”
The election, Sane said, revolves around candidate loyalty and micro-level concerns rather than alliances. Many senior MVA leaders, including Prithviraj Chavan and Balasaheb Thorat, have focused on defending their constituencies rather than rallying support elsewhere, reflecting the challenges the alliance faces.
The split within the NCP is particularly significant. Ajit Pawar’s NCP, aligned with the BJP, has fielded 26 candidates in western Maharashtra, banking heavily on the government’s Ladki Bahin scheme. “We are confident of better results than some observers predict,” the deputy chief minister said earlier this week.
Sharad Pawar’s faction, contesting 37 of 87 seats, has centred its campaign on farm distress, unemployment, and crime against women. “People want change. Schemes like Ladki Bahin cannot hide the deeper issues of farmer suicides and government misuse,” the Pawar senior said at a rally.
Rebel candidates have emerged as spoilers across nearly half of the constituencies. In Pandharpur and Sangole, intra-alliance clashes have pitted MVA candidates against each other, splitting votes.
In Satara, BJP’s Shivendra Raje Bhosale is banking on his personal stature rather than party affiliation. “We vote for Shivendra Raje, not the BJP. He represents us,” said Akash Dudhbhate, a local resident.
Hyper-local issues like agricultural distress, lack of infrastructure, and cooperative politics resonate more with voters than state or national narratives.
Both alliances pulled out all stops in their campaigns. Prime minister Narendra Modi addressed two rallies in western Maharashtra, while Union home minister Amit Shah spent two consecutive days campaigning. Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, and Mallikarjun Kharge made a strong pitch for the MVA.
BJP’s Murlidhar Mohol predicted a strong showing for Mahayuti, claiming, “Our campaign successfully countered the MVA’s fake narrative. We expect to win 45 of 70 seats, up from 42 in 2019.”
However, vote transfer between alliance partners remains a challenge. While MVA allies Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) have coordinated better, similar synergy is missing between BJP and Ajit Pawar’s NCP.
Historically, the region has been a Congress-NCP stronghold. In 2019, the undivided NCP won 27 seats, while BJP secured 20. However, the saffron party’s rising organisational strength and the Modi factor have eroded this dominance since 2014.
Ajit’s decision to ally with BJP in 2023, creating a rift with Sharad Pawar’s faction, has further unsettled traditional voting patterns. Interestingly, BJP avoided directly attacking Sharad Pawar, perhaps to prevent sympathy votes for him.
As fragmented votes, rebel candidates, and hyper-local issues dominate, the election outcome in western Maharashtra is poised to be a nail-biter. Winning margins may be thin, and no alliance appears set for a landslide.
“The poll underscores a shift from party loyalty to individual charisma and local concerns,” Sane said, adding, “western Maharashtra has become the most unpredictable region in this election.”
