Tauktae’s impact on onset of monsoon in Maharashtra too early to predict, scientists say
As cyclone Tauktae further intensifies in the Arabian Sea, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the southwest monsoon may now reach Kerala by May 31, a day prior to the normal date. However, how the cyclone will impact the monsoon’s arrival and withdrawal in Maharashtra is being studied, said IMD scientists.
OP Sreejith, scientist and head, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Group (CMPG) at IMD Pune said that once the cyclone conditions are over, the picture will get clearer.
“It is difficult to say at this time when the monsoon will reach Maharashtra. We can get an idea after the dissipation of the cyclonic storm currently over the Arabian Sea. However, the current formation of the cyclone will strengthen the cross-equatorial flow and help strengthen the monsoon flow. At the same time, a direct correlation cannot be made between the cyclone and the monsoon onset,” said Sreejith.
According Sreejith, cyclones in Arabian Sea which are moving towards Yemen and Oman may adversely affect the southwest monsoon.
“But for cyclone Tauktae, it’s path is parallel to the Indian coast and so there are chances that it will help the monsoon to advance,” said Sreejith.
As per the weather department, the monsoon advance over Andaman and Nicobar Islands is very likely around May 21.
However, the past data suggests that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country.
As per a recent paper published by Elena Surovyatkina, researcher from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, monsoon will reach central part of India which includes south-eastern part of Maharashtra state, western part of Chhattisgarh state and the northern part of Telangana state between June 21 to June 29.
“Pre-monsoon isolated rainfall may appear in the period from 14 -17 June. The continuous monsoon rainfall is expected to start from June 29 in the region,” stated the paper.
Meteorologists from IMD said that the cyclonic storm ‘Tauktae’ is very likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm until Saturday evening.
Thereafter, it is further expected to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm until the morning of May 16. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Naliya around May 18 afternoon/ evening according to weather department.
On Saturday, no rainfall was reported in Pune city. As per IMD, the day temperature in Pune city was 36.8 degrees Celsius and the night temperature was 24.4 degrees Celsius.
Anupam Kashyapi, head of weather forecasting department at IMD Pune said that ghat areas around Pune may receive heavy rainfall.
“There is a chance of cloudy weather in the city on May 16. The ghat areas may receive heavy rainfall. Moderate rain (15.6 – 64.4 mm) with isolated heavy (64.5-115.5mm) rainfall is very likely in ghat areas. Thunderstorm and lightning, likely on May 16,” said Kashyapi.
Kolhapur and Mahabaleshwar reported rainfall on Saturday. In Konkan and Goa, Ratnagiri and Panjim also reported rainfall.
The highest maximum temperature reported in Maharashtra was at 42.2 degrees Celsius at Akola and the lowest minimum temperature reported was at 18.4 degrees Celsius at Mahabaleshwar on Saturday.