It is a region that has seen the rise of the Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the fall of the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in the past 10 years.
The region has 46 seats. While the Congress-NCP was reduced to 17 in the 2014 Assembly polls, from 24 in 2009, the Sena-BJP went up to 26 seats, from nine in 2009. In the Lok Sabha elections held in April-May this year, the Congress-NCP was routed, with its senior leaders namely Ashok Chavan and Rana Jagjitsinh Patil getting defeated.
The burning issues of agrarian distress and failure to address the water scarcity of the region are discussed during electioneering, but political observers feel, the voting pattern is unlikely to change. They say it may act in favour of the ruling parties, but it will still be difficult for them to replicate the Lok Sabha performance.
THE REGION
Marathwada, which includes eight drought-prone districts, has given the Congress four chief ministers –Shankarrao Chavan, Vilasrao Deshmukh, Shivaji Patil Nilangekar and Ashok Chavan. The Shiv Sena could make inroads in parts of the region in the late 1980s and early 1991, in the wake of the violent movement for and against the renaming of the Marathwada University after Dr BA Ambedkar. The Maratha community, to some extent, shifted its support to the Shiv Sena, the only party which opposed the renaming of the university, which was the demand of Ambedkar followers. Until then, the region was a stronghold of the Congress.
It is largely dominated by Marathas, followed by strong pockets of Other Backward Classes, and Muslims and Dalits in several parts of districts like Aurangabad, Parbhani, Beed and Osmanabad. The region, which was under the Nizam rule pre-independence, saw the emergence of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in 2012, when it won 13 seats in the Nanded-Waghala municipal council. The Hyderabad-based party had its first MP from Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha this year, when it won the Aurangabad seat. It has also established its base in parts of Marathwada by winning more than a hundred seats in local bodies across the region over the past seven years. Besides the AIMIM, which enjoyed support from Muslim voters, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi led by Prakash Ambedkar, Dr BR Ambedkar’s grandson, surprisingly got significant support in parts of the region. In Nanded, VBA’s candidate scored more than 1.62 lakh votes that are said to have resulted in the defeat of Ashok Chavan.
{{/usCountry}}It is largely dominated by Marathas, followed by strong pockets of Other Backward Classes, and Muslims and Dalits in several parts of districts like Aurangabad, Parbhani, Beed and Osmanabad. The region, which was under the Nizam rule pre-independence, saw the emergence of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in 2012, when it won 13 seats in the Nanded-Waghala municipal council. The Hyderabad-based party had its first MP from Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha this year, when it won the Aurangabad seat. It has also established its base in parts of Marathwada by winning more than a hundred seats in local bodies across the region over the past seven years. Besides the AIMIM, which enjoyed support from Muslim voters, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi led by Prakash Ambedkar, Dr BR Ambedkar’s grandson, surprisingly got significant support in parts of the region. In Nanded, VBA’s candidate scored more than 1.62 lakh votes that are said to have resulted in the defeat of Ashok Chavan.
{{/usCountry}}Observers believe the VBA and AIMIM, after they decided to go solo this elections, would not have their crucial impact in the Assembly polls. The AIMIM will have an impact on two seats in Aurangabad city, while the VBA candidates are likely to get the support from Dalit and Muslim-dominated pockets in parts of Parbhani, Beed and Nanded.
On the other hand, eyes are now set on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Parli rally on October 17, as many believe it will have a wider impact in parts of Marathwada. “The political wave in Beed impacts other districts of Marathwada. Modi or BJP leaders have not been touching the real issues of the state or Marathwada, and have instead been thrusting on the so-called nationalist issues such as abrogation of Article 370 and infiltration by Pakistani militants. I guess the ruling party, during Modi’s rally this week, will shift the focus of the campaign on cases against NCP leaders, including Praful Patel,” said Jaidev Dole, political analyst and former head of the journalism department at Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathwada University in Aurangabad. “The drought situation has worsened, unemployment has risen and businesses are hit badly. People have realised this now and would not come under the plank of nationalist issues being raked by the BJP,” he said.
“Not only in Marathwada, even on state level, our performance will be much better and we expect to win 125 seats. The farmers in distress in Marathwada are supporting us. This has been evident during the rallies by Sharad Pawar,” said Dhananjay Munde, leader of Opposition in the legislative Council and a senior NCP functionary.
The ruling parties, like other regions, have witnessed rebellion within, giving a new ray of hope to Opposition parties which were until recently seen as demoralised. More than 15 seats have rebels playing spoilsport in the prospects of the ruling parties. For instance, in Georai constituency in Beed district, NCP’s Vijaysinh Pandit may get advantage of rebellion by Shiv Sena’s Badamrao Pandit against BJP candidate Laxman Pawar. Nanded South, Ausa in Latur and Sillod in Aurangabad constituencies have also seen rebellion within the ruling combine.
THE DYNASTIES
Political career of many tall leaders from Marathwada is at stake in this election. After his defeat in Lok Sabha polls, former chief minister Ashok Chavan is facing the challenge of not only winning his Bhokar constituency, but also ensuring the victory of other party candidates and his close aides DP Sawant and Vasant Chavan. Ashok Chavan has replaced his wife and sitting party MLA from Bhokar Ameeta Chavan.
In Beed, rural development minister and BJP’s OBC face Pankaja Munde is facing her cousin Dhananjay Munde (NCP) and for both it is a battle of prestige. If Dhananjay Munde loses to his cousin, his political clout would not remain the same and if Pankaja loses, her cabinet berth may be in trouble. Former minister Vilasrao Deshmukh’s son and former minister Amit is struggling to regain the lost ground in Latur. His younger brother Dhiraj, too, is in the fray from the adjoining Latur constituency. Amit is facing the double challenge in VBA candidate and local Muslim face Rajasaab Maniyar, besides BJP’s Shailesh Lahoti. The Muslim population in Latur city is 20% and division of votes may disturb the prospects of the Congress.
Like Mundes, Deshmukhs and Chavans, the Nilangekars in Latur and Patils in Osamanabad are among the political dynasties in Marathwada. Sambhaji Patil Nilangekar (BJP), grandson of former chief minister Shivajirao Patil Nilangekar, is pitted against his uncle Ashok Patil Nilangekar (Congress) in Nilanga. Former minister and former NCP leader Padmasinh Patil’s son and former legislator Rana Jagjitsinh Patil is contesting from Tulajapur against Congress’s senior leader Madhukar Chavan. Rana recently joined the BJP by defecting the NCP and was fielded from Tulajapur.
Some of the turncoats are facing the issue of acceptability by local party workers and leaders. Rana is seen as an outsider as he has been contesting from Osmanabad.
Local BJP and Shiv Sena leaders are not cooperating with Rana, as they look at him as an outsider. In Beed, Shiv Sena workers have not accepted Jaydutt Kshirsagar, who recently joined the party and has been fielded as official candidate. Being a senior NCP leader, Jaydutt had many clashes with the Sena workers and leaders in the past. “Not only Rana, even the Shiv Sena’s Tanaji Sawant is facing opposition within the district, as local leaders see threat to their political future if these leaders are established. Sawant recently emerged as a significant leader in the district,” said Motichand Bedmutha, political analyst.
In Jalna and Parbhani, state minister Arjun Khotkar and Babanrao Lonikar are facing local Congress-NCP heavyweights Kailash Gorantyal and Suresh Jethlia.
The BJP, in Marathwada, is banking on construction of the national highways, announcement of the water grid and other irrigation projects and under construction rail coach factory at Latur which is expected to general 25,000 jobs. Local leaders also boast of the development works done by the BJP after winning local bodies. They are convincing voters how it is important to have an MLA from the party which is sure to get a second term in the state and has been ruling successfully at the Centre.
“Our performance in the past five years is in front of people. The planned water grid for Marathwada, construction of national and state highways will pay huge dividends these elections,” said Pankaja Munde. “Nothing has been seen on ground so far,” said Congress leader Amit Deshmukh.
A few parts of Beed and Osmanabad districts are still reeling under water shortage and the government is expected to announce another drought in the next few months. At least 12.74 lakh people in 561 villages still depend on the water supplied through tankers. The government has continued 39 cattle camps in two districts, as they are facing shortage of water and fodder.
“In Beed district, the crop loss is more than 33% in the present Kharif season and we may have to announce drought in most villages, as per the National Disaster Response Fund norms,” said an official from the Beed collectorate.