Did Ajit Agarkar take right call in picking five spinners for India's Champions Trophy campaign in Dubai?
While some claim that India got their plans wrong by not getting more pacers in the squad, here's what data suggest…
"Are India expecting the ball to turn in Dubai?" - Ravichandran Ashwin asked the big question and admitted to being "uncomfortable" with India's strategy for the Champions Trophy. There has been considerable chatter after the Ajit Agarkar-led selection committee picked five spin bowlers for their Dubai campaign, slated to begin on Thursday. While some claim that India got their plans wrong by not getting more pacers in the squad, especially in the absence of Jasprit Bumrah, amid the data emerging from the recently-concluded ILT20 season in the UAE, data suggests otherwise.
India initially included four spinners in their provisional squad: left-armers Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel, off-spinner Washington Sundar, and leg-spinner Kuldeep Yadav. While the team was already criticised for having one less fast bowler, the situation worsened when Jasprit Bumrah was ruled out of the tournament due to a back injury sustained during the Border-Gavaskar Test series last month. In response, the selectors added another spinner, Varun Chakravarthy, replacing batter Yashasvi Jaiswal, who was moved to the reserves.
What does Dubai pitch data say?
ILT20 data clearly suggested India got their strategy wrong, with pacers having more influence in the recently-ended 2024/25 season, picking 68 per cent (116/1170) of the wickets across 15 matches at the Dubai International Stadium, where the Rohit Sharma-led team will play all their Champions Trophy games. While, T20 has increasingly become a different game altogether, the sample size of ODI matches played at the venue, keeping out associate nations, is too less.
Since hosting its first ODI match in 2009, Dubai International Stadium has witnessed 25 games, pacers have picked 57 per cent of the wickets (183/321), although it is the spinners who have controlled the run-scoring, recording an economy rate of 4.63. The equation has remained largely the same (58% for pacers) across matches since 2017, although the usage of spinners have been more in terms of overs bowled (50%). CricViz data showed that the variety has been more effective through the middle-overs, where the run rate is 4.6
CricViz data further showed that of the four big venues in the UAE, the new balls swings the least in Dubai (0.74%), but the grass on the pitch means pacers will get a good bounce (73 cm) off good-length deliveries.
