IND vs AUS World Cup 2023, Match prediction: Why India hold edge to deny 5-time champions repeat of 1987 thriller

India certainly posses the right ingredients to take down the mighty Aussies in what is surely expected to be a blockbuster of an opener in Chennai.

"You heard the great man say that so many times that you know, until he wins the World Cup, he's got a bit of unfinished business. I am sure you know who I'm talking about. So, it's the same for us as well."

Australia's Steve Smith (2L) and Mitchell Marsh (2R) take a break as India's Virat Kohli (L) and KL Rahul (C) walk past during the third and final one-day international (ODI) cricket match between India and Australia(AFP)

Desperation isn't the word to put together Rohit Sharma's remark at the pre-match presser in Chennai. It reflects sheer hunger and desire to get it done, thus putting an end to all the decade-long monotonous talk around the ICC trophy drought once and for all. And the World Cup opener against Australia could just be the perfect match for India to make a statement that they are here to emulate their 2011 feat at home. (India vs Australia Live Score, World Cup 2023)

Just over a week back, India, in a bid to tick their final boxes for the home tournament, took on the most successful team in World Cup history in a three-match ODI series and the hosts won 2-1. But if you want to rule out the Aussies based on that result, do at your own peril. Remember, the only match they won against India in that series, was against a full-strength side. Moreover, Australia in World Cups are a different beasts. They haven't lost a tournament opener since 1999 and in their only opening game against India, back in 1987, incidentally at Chennai itself, the Allan Border-led side had clinched a thriller against then defending champions India, led by Kapil Dev, by just one run.

India will be eager to deny Australia of a 1987 repeat and they certainly posses the right ingredients to take down the mighty Aussies in what is surely expected to be a blockbuster of an opener.

Why India are favourites against Australia?

1. Hardik Pandya factor: The return of Hardik to the ODI format has added a separate dimension to the India line-up, and his improved quality as a bowler could rightly allow the team to add spin variation to the XI as well. Hardik is bowling at 135-140kmph - he is a genuine third seamer for India now. One can expect Hardik as a one-change bowler given his edge over Steve Smith, whom he has dismissed five times in 75 balls while also containing Mitchell Marsh, 46 runs off 60 balls for one dismissal, who will be the opener for Australia.
2. Ashwin knows the conditions: Given Chennai's known conditions and the dry, black-soil pitch laid down for India's World Cup opener, Ashwin is a certainty as a third spinner which could subsequently provide the team with a batting depth. Moreover, Ashwin holds an edge over Australia's key batters in David Warner and Steve Smith. In the recently-concluded series, the veteran offie had picked four wickets, three of which came on a batting-friendly Indore track, sparking a top-order collapse. He got rid of Marnus Labuschagne twice in two games and got the better of Warner and Josh Inglis while also troubling Smith. Not to forget, this is his home ground.
3. Kohli loves Australia: It is not a secret anymore and the numbers speak for himself. Kohli's career tally of 2228 runs against the Aussies with eight tons are the both the third-highest numbers against any opposition he has faced. But Kohli enjoys facing Australia more on home conditions. 1344 of those aforementioned run tally have been scored at home, which is the most against any opposition, with five centuries. He is also the only player in the present Indian side with a century in Chepauk.

What India need to be wary of against Australia?

1. Left-arm pace threat: Two of India's senior top-order batters in Kohli and Rohit are susceptible to left-arm pacers, while KL Rahul, expected to bat at No. 5 for India. is also considerably vulnerable against the variety. What adds to their woes is their record against left-arm fast bowlers in the first ten overs: Rohit averages 36.7 for 21 dismissals in 95 innings, Kohli has been dismissed 13 times in 67 innings for an average of 32.1 while Rahul averages 25.3 with three dismissals in 18 innings. However, against Starc, Rohit, Rahul and Kohli all average above 40 with three, two and one dismissals respectively.
2. The name is Maxwell. Glenn Maxwell: The Aussie has shown significant improvement as bowler. From an average of 130.66 between 2016 and 2020 in 61 appearances, Maxwell averages 28.53 since then, and that includes his stunning 4 for 40 in the third match against India in Rajkot a week back which helped Australia script their only win in the series.