WTC race: With SA taking top spot in the table, pressure on India
A 3-1 finish in the ongoing series against Australia should put India in the final for a third time in a row
Kolkata: South Africa defeated Sri Lanka by 109 runs in Gqeberha (formerly Port Elizabeth) to win the two-match series 2-0 on Monday and as a result moved up to No.1 on the ICC World Test Championship table with 63.33 percentage points. Placed second are Australia with 60.71 percentage points, followed by India (57.29%) in the aftermath of their defeat at Adelaide. It makes the race to Lord’s next year largely a three-team affair as England and New Zealand are no longer in contention while Sri Lanka and Pakistan must stretch themselves and then depend on other results to make the cut.
South Africa’s ascent was almost unnoticed, and now they have the highest probability of making it to the final given they only need to win one of their next two Tests against Pakistan. Even if Pakistan manage to level the series 1-1, South Africa can still finish No.2. A 2-0 finish however will seal South Africa’s place. The equations get complicated if South Africa draw both their Tests to finish on 58.33% and Australia win at least three of their next five Tests (they play Sri Lanka next). A 0-1 defeat to Pakistan however will leave South Africa hoping on Australia winning maximum two of their remaining five Tests, or India finishing 2-2 in the current series.
Winning both Tests in Sri Lanka is far more difficult than it seems on paper for Australia. Which is why the onus is on them to win at least two of the next three Tests against India to cement a final berth. A second-place finish is on the cards if Australia draw this series 2-2 and lose 0-2 in Sri Lanka, pushing India to third.
How can India qualify?
Two wins and a draw should push India to 60.53% and at least a second place, behind South Africa. A 3-2 win would give India 58.77%, meaning Australia will have to win both Tests against Sri Lanka to surpass India. No other result would suffice for them.
However, if India were to lose 2-3, they would finish on 53.51 and risk slipping to fourth behind Sri Lanka. For India to qualify from that position would require South Africa to lose both Tests to Pakistan and Australia drawing at least one Test in Sri Lanka or levelling the series 1-1.
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