Brinkmanship in West Asia

Israel and Iran should be persuaded to back off from a dangerous war that could be a drag on global peace and prosperity

Over the weekend, Israel launched waves of aerial strikes on Iran, initially hitting Tehran’s nuclear facilities and military leadership and subsequently targeting energy facilities. Iran has retaliated with its own missile strikes across Israel. The promise of detente in West Asia has died with the Iran-Israel conflict entering a new and deadly phase. Israel’s attacks came at a time when Iran and the US were engaged in crucial negotiations on the future of Tehran’s nuclear programme, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has contended the open-ended military action was necessary to “roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival”. The only country in West Asia that is currently believed to possess nuclear weapons is Israel, and neither the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nor the US Director of National Intelligence has concluded that Iran is currently developing atomic bombs. However, on June 12, IAEA censured Iran for failing to provide information about undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple locations. The Israeli military has said that the strikes were based on intelligence that Iran was “approaching the point of no return” in the development of a nuclear weapon.

The unfortunate part is that there are no credible agencies to intervene and negotiate peace, especially with the UN being toothless and Iran seeing the US as partisan (AFP)

US President Donald Trump, who some weeks ago said a nuclear deal with Iran was imminent, has backed Israel. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which includes Russia and China, has condemned Israel. Netanyahu, meanwhile, has promised more attacks and sought a regime change in Tehran. None of this augurs well. The conflict will hit the world economy, with crude oil prices rising. A continuing closure of the airspace over West Asia and the threat to shipping routes in the Red Sea will affect travel and trade. It remains to be seen if Netanyahu’s coercive strategy, that is backed by Trump, can get Tehran to back down. Iran has pulled out of the talks with the US, and may even quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The unfortunate part is that there are no credible agencies to intervene and negotiate peace, especially with the UN being toothless and Iran seeing the US as partisan. Key powers must restrain Israel and Iran.

India faces tough choices in balancing its relations with Israel and Iran. Its abstention in a UN vote for a ceasefire in Gaza and refusal to endorse the SCO statement on Israel’s aggression reflects a new geopolitical context with little room for manoeuvre.