On Covid, India has no need to worry yet
Is Covid back? Is the trickle of cases being recorded in several parts of the country the same sort of a sign that preceded the Omicron variant and the Delta variant waves? The short answer is no, for several reasons.
Every Covid wave is preceded by what at first seems like drops turning into a trickle of infections. Soon, they turn into a steady stream and within days, a flood of infections. Today, a steady but small increase in recorded cases has prompted the question: Is Covid back? Is the trickle of cases being recorded in several parts of the country the same sort of a sign that preceded the Omicron variant and the Delta variant waves? The short answer is no, for several reasons.
First, the spread of new reported cases is across multiple states. Usually, a variant of the Sars-CoV-2 spreads from a limited number of locations. In the case of Delta variant, this was Maharashtra. For Omicron, it was Delhi and Mumbai. At present, there are three states — Maharashtra, Delhi and Kerala — where new cases have risen almost in tandem. Second, a resurgent influenza season has meant more people are getting tested for Covid-19, possibly discovering an incidental infection. In fact, a regular Covid testing exercise at Christian Medical College, Vellore, where doctors are being tested regularly, has shown that two-thirds of those testing positive are asymptomatic. This implies the virus is endemic, and people are likely carrying it widely, without developing an illness. Third, the current version of the coronavirus most widely found, XBB.1.16, surged from 3% in early February to 65% in mid-March. The rapid growth rate has, however, not led to any increase in people with severe disease or needing hospital admission.
Together, these signs are evidence the current increase is part of the ebb and flow that is routine with an endemic pathogen, like the flu virus. Hence, care must be taken to avoid alarm, which can lead to more harm than the virus itself.
Every Covid wave is preceded by what at first seems like drops turning into a trickle of infections. Soon, they turn into a steady stream and within days, a flood of infections. Today, a steady but small increase in recorded cases has prompted the question: Is Covid back? Is the trickle of cases being recorded in several parts of the country the same sort of a sign that preceded the Omicron variant and the Delta variant waves? The short answer is no, for several reasons.
First, the spread of new reported cases is across multiple states. Usually, a variant of the Sars-CoV-2 spreads from a limited number of locations. In the case of Delta variant, this was Maharashtra. For Omicron, it was Delhi and Mumbai. At present, there are three states — Maharashtra, Delhi and Kerala — where new cases have risen almost in tandem. Second, a resurgent influenza season has meant more people are getting tested for Covid-19, possibly discovering an incidental infection. In fact, a regular Covid testing exercise at Christian Medical College, Vellore, where doctors are being tested regularly, has shown that two-thirds of those testing positive are asymptomatic. This implies the virus is endemic, and people are likely carrying it widely, without developing an illness. Third, the current version of the coronavirus most widely found, XBB.1.16, surged from 3% in early February to 65% in mid-March. The rapid growth rate has, however, not led to any increase in people with severe disease or needing hospital admission.
Together, these signs are evidence the current increase is part of the ebb and flow that is routine with an endemic pathogen, like the flu virus. Hence, care must be taken to avoid alarm, which can lead to more harm than the virus itself.
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