The importance of numbers

A healthy democracy needs healthy and regular statistics. Government needs to ensure that

The National Statistical Office (NSO) released the full report of the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (CES) on June 7, bringing an end to a decade-long drought of consumption expenditure data — it had released a 27-page factsheet in February. While there are issues with comparing the 2022-23 CES findings with those of previous surveys, the fact that we finally have a CES report is something that ought to be welcomed. The publication of the CES findings will not just tell us about patterns of consumption spending and the nature of inequality, but also allow the policy apparatus to update important statistical series such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In case of the latter, a fall in the share of food in household spending could help reduce the impact of food price shocks on headline inflation numbers. These updates were long due and were held back because of lack of data.

The National Statistical Office (NSO) released the full report of the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (CES) on June 7 (REUTERS PHOTO.)

The story of a delayed CES leading to obsolete statistical indicators is not a one-off under the previous two Narendra Modi governments. There is more than one example of important statistical exercises not being conducted or their results being held back, creating a dark spot for policy and public discourse in the country. The biggest example of this is the delay in conducting the decadal census due in 2021 — on the flimsy excuse of the pandemic, even as assembly elections were held in large states amidst the worst Covid wave.

The new government will do well to expedite the collection and publication of these results. In some cases, such as the census, it might have to evolve a political consensus on issues such as whether or not a caste census will be conducted along with the decadal census. No matter what the decision is, this is a discussion which cannot be kicked down the road any further. Importantly, both the delimitation exercise (which will allocate more Lok Sabha representation to states on the basis of their population), and the reservation of seats for women in Parliament are dependent on this.

Politics is not the only area of concern regarding the statistical challenges in front of the new government. There are many issues on which independent economists and statisticians have been criticising government statistics. Whether these concerns are about compatibility, such as the demand for conducting bridge surveys to ensure current and old consumer surveys can be read together or making sure that our statistics do not sacrifice holistic coverage in order to make them look better, it is important that the government takes all of them on board. A healthy democracy needs healthy and regular statistics — and the onus for ensuring this is on the government.