Three key aspects of the change in Bihar

Three aspects of the change in Bihar – a Janata Dal (United), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and Congress alliance will likely take over – merit mention.

It is a reflection of the hegemonic status of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Indian politics that opposition parties keep score not on the basis of their wins, but the former’s losses. And so, the fact that the party is no longer a part of the ruling alliance in Bihar, the state that sends the fourth highest number of representatives to the Lok Sabha, soon after it became part of the ruling coalition by displacing an Opposition alliance in Maharashtra, the state that sends the second highest, will be seen as some sort of equalisation. There are three aspects of the change in Bihar – a Janata Dal (United), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and Congress alliance will likely take over – that merit mention.

The JD(U)’s re-entry into the Opposition space, and Nitish Kumar’s stature as well as connections across parties, at once both simplifies and complicates the leadership question for 2024. 

One, the BJP’s hegemonic status (built on the foundation of the nationwide popularity of Narendra Modi) makes it a poor partner. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing given the fault lines of coalition politics, but it is clear that the party’s allies are increasingly beginning to question their future in partnership with a force that is always growing. The JD(U) can now be added to a list of examples that already includes the Shiv Sena and the AIADMK. Two, while JD(U) chief, and chief minister Nitish Kumar was the architect of the break-up – he believes the BJP was working against him and his party – the RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as a force to reckon with. The RJD is the larger partner in the coalition. Three, the JD(U)’s re-entry into the Opposition space, and Nitish Kumar’s stature as well as connections across parties, at once both simplifies and complicates the leadership question for 2024.

The Gujarat elections later this year were expected to kickstart an election season that would last up to the parliamentary polls in 2024, but given recent events in Maharashtra and now Bihar, it is clear that the season is already upon us. The game is afoot.