Number Theory: Understanding the Parliamentary, state contests in Andhra Pradesh

Was YSRCP’s growth at the cost of the TDP a result of the TDP parting ways with the BJP, and will this reverse with the TDP and BJP joining hands again?

Andhra Pradesh is among the four states in India that has simultaneous elections for Lok Sabha and the state assembly. All 175 assembly constituencies (ACs) and 25 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) in the state will vote on May 13, 2023 in the fourth phase of the ongoing election cycle. What is the nature of the electoral dynamics in the state? Here are the four charts that explain this.

India General Elections 2024 Live: A finger of a voter is marked with indelible ink after casting a ballot at a polling station during the third phase of voting for national elections in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, on Tuesday, May 7. (Prakash Singh/Bloomberg)

Understanding the Parliamentary, state contests in Andhra Pradesh

• 
  Andhra Pradesh assembly elections are YSRCP’s to lose

  In the 2019 state assembly elections, the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) won a thumping victory by securing 151 out of 175 ACs with a vote share of 50%. The party that finished a distant second with just 23 MLAs was Telugu Desam Party (TDP) despite a credible vote share of 39.2%. The YSRCP is contesting the 2024 elections on its own. The TDP has allied with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Jana Sena. Will a united opposition pose a threat to the YSRCP’s chances of retaining power in the state? Not unless the YSRCP is facing a very strong anti-incumbency in the state. The numbers speak for themselves. In the 2019 assembly elections, the YSRCP had more than 50% vote share in 97 out of the 175 ACs in the state. This means that unless its own voters desert the YSRCP, it will not lose its majority in the house irrespective of the degree of Opposition unity.
• But retaining its 2019 seat tally will be a challenge for the YSRCP

  In a first-past-the-post system, the seat share-to-vote share ratio is a good metric to measure a party’s ability to convert the popular support (votes) into seats. This number was 1.73 for the YSRCP in 2019. Not only is it the highest since 2009 for what is currently Andhra Pradesh – Andhra Pradesh and Telangana were bifurcated in 2014 – it is also the highest since 1978 if one takes into account pre-delimitation ACs in what is Andhra Pradesh today. Data for 1962-72 includes all ACs in the united Andhra Pradesh. This means that while the chances of the YSRCP retaining power in the state remain somewhat high, the same cannot be said for it repeating the 2019 thumping performance.
• 
  It will be a mistake to completely write off the TDP

  Despite its big loss in 2019, it would be wrong to write off the TDP completely. It’s vote share has never fallen below 28% since 1985. With a vote share of 39.2% in 2019 assembly elections, it is the only opposition party in the state to be reckoned with. This also means that it will be primary beneficiary of any anti-incumbency in the state. So, how much swing of votes does the TDP need to get past the majority mark? While the difference between the YSRCP and the TDP vote share in 2019 was 11 percentage points, a simulation of vote swing away from the YSRCP shows that a 6 percentage points uniform swing of votes from the YSRCP to the TDP could take the latter past the majority mark.
• What does the Lok Sabha contest look like?

  The YSRCP won 22 out of 25 PCs in the state five years ago with a vote share of 49.15%. In terms of seat share, there was not much difference between the YSRCP’s 2019 Lok Sabha and assembly performance. However, a comparison of vote shares in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections shows that YSRCP’s vote share in the assembly elections was larger than in Lok Sabha elections in 114 ACs. In 61 ACs, the YSRCP’s Lok Sabha vote share was larger than its assembly election vote share. Will the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena alliance enjoy a vote share premium in the Lok Sabha elections on account of Narendra Modi’s popularity? This is something that normally happens with the BJP in Lok Sabha elections. The BJP had a negligible vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha and assembly elections, but the BJP and TDP had performed much better in the 2014 Lok Sabha and assembly elections. Their combined vote share in 2014 was 47.8% in PCs of what is the current Andhra Pradesh. This number is 2.3 percentage points higher than the YSRCP vote share in 2014. In 2019, the combined vote share of the TDP and the BJP fell to 40.5%. Was YSRCP’s growth at the cost of the TDP a result of the TDP parting ways with the BJP, and will this reverse with the TDP and BJP joining hands again? This question that will only be answered on June 4.