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Stakes high for parties amid multi-cornered contest in Punjab
The multi-cornered election is a first for the border state Punjab known for its two-horse race and there has seldom been so much on the line for the parties in fray
When Punjab goes to the polls on Sunday, voters will have plenty to choose from — three solo parties and two political alliances. The multi-cornered electoral fight is a first for the border state known for its two-horse race, and there has seldom been so much on the line for the established parties and the new ones looking to make their presence felt.
The campaigning saw the Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Shiromani Akali Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party (SAD-BSP) alliance, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led three party combine, and newly minted political front of farm unions Sanyukt Samaj Morcha (SSM) hitting on all cylinders. There is no clear wave for or against any party. However, the undercurrent appears to be in favour of the AAP.
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Will Cong’s Channi gambit pay off
For the ruling Congress, the prestige of the state leadership — particularly chief minister (CM) Charanjit Singh Channi and state unit president Navjot Singh Sidhu — and the high command is at stake. Around the same time last year, the Congress seemed to have its best chance in Punjab among the five states going to the polls simultaneously.
However, it plunged into chaos triggered by internal bickering that forced then CM Captain Amarinder Singh, who had led the party to a two-thirds majority in 2017, tender his resignation five months ago. The central leadership, which did little to stop the infighting, handpicked Channi as the first Dalit CM of Punjab, eyeing the 32% scheduled caste (SC) votes.
As Sidhu and Channi, who have not been on the same page on several issues, pushed for naming the CM face for the polls, the party picked the latter, again hoping to corner a big chunk of the SC votes. Channi has been getting a good response, and the strategy will get tested in Sunday’s polling.
Pro-change sentiment propels AAP
The stakes are equally high, if not more, for the principal challenger AAP. The party is buoyed by the desire for change sweeping across large swathes of the state. The AAP campaign was led by national convener Arvind Kejriwal and chief ministerial face Bhagwant Mann, and its slogan “Ik Mauka AAP Nu” (Give a chance to AAP) is resonating in Malwa (69 of the total 117 seats), and parts of Majha (25) and Doaba (23) regions.
The party had won 20 seats — 18 of them in Malwa — in its debut assembly poll in 2017, but fell way short of expectations despite getting huge traction. The AAP is on an upsweep once again, but the spectre of 2017 is not behind it. Kejriwal had faced allegations of being soft towards Sikh radicals, which did not sit well with the Hindu voters. The allegations of support to separatists are back, and the rivals have gone after the party in unison. Another worry for the party is its limited organisational setup on the ground.
Can Akali Dal regain lost ground?
Pushed to the number three position after its 10-year rule with the worst-ever tally in 2017, the Sukhbir Singh Badal-led SAD is hopeful of regaining much of the lost ground in what is being seen as a make-or-break election for the party. Having snapped its 24-year-old alliance with the BJP over the now-repealed farm laws, the Akalis last year entered into a pre-poll pact with the BSP and took the lead in declaring its candidates.
Pitching itself as “Punjab’s own party”, the SAD ran a smooth campaign — both on the ground and social media, harking back to the “halcyon days of its rule” with focus on infrastructure and welfare schemes. The SAD is counting on its strong cadre, but the traction the AAP is getting in the party’s traditional stronghold of Malwa and pockets of Majha is worrying its supporters. Also, the party is still to recover from the impact of the simmering sacrilege issue and farmers’ stir on its core constituency in the rural belt.
BJP’s poll blitz took rivals by surprise
The BJP, which played second fiddle to the Akalis for years, is contesting 73 seats for the first time in alliance with Capt Amarinder Singh’s Punjab Lok Congress (PLC) and Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa-led SAD (Sanyukt). Coming into its own just when it looked down and out due to the huge blowback over the farm laws, the party took everyone, especially its rivals, by surprise with its aggressive poll blitzkrieg and unprecedented outreach to deras, religious sects and Sikh leaders.
The campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi saw dozens of ministers and other national leaders, including Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari and Smriti Irani, holding dozens of rallies and road shows. Though they focused on about two dozen seats, how many of these they can convert into wins is anyone’s guess.
SSM finds the going tough
The Sanyukt Samaj Morcha (SSM), the political outfit floated by 19 farmer unions that had participated in the stir against the Centre’s farm laws, has been a non-starter. Contesting the election in alliance with Gurnam Singh Chaduni’s Sanyukt Sangharsh Party (SSP), the morcha headed by farmer leader Balbir Singh Rajewal, who campaigned hard, has been on a sticky wicket from the start.
The first blow was when several prominent farmer organisations, including the Bharatiya Kisan Union (Ugrahan), questioned their entry into politics. Though 14 of its candidates had retired from the contest, it is being seen as a potential spoiler in some constituencies.
