Advantage TMC, as regional parties enter Bengal polls race

Bihar’s ruling Janata Dal (United), and the main opposition, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD); the Samajwadi Party (SP), Jharkhand’s governing Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) as well as Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have decided to contest the polls either in alliance or on their own.

As West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee seeks to consolidate anti-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) votes ahead of the assembly polls due in March-April, Hindi heartland parties are gearing up to enter the race. The entry is expected to split the votes of Hindi-speaking and tribal people. The advantage of such a division, no matter how small, may help the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in some regions, say leaders of the ruling party.

On Thursday, Jharkhand chief minister Hemant Soren addressed his first rally at Jhargram, a district with a high tribal population.(HT file)

The BJP has set a target of winning over 200 of the state’s 294 seats. Election strategist Prashant Kishor, who was roped in by Banerjee in 2019 after the BJP won 18 of the state’s 42 Lok Sabha seats, has said he will leave his profession if the party gets over 99 seats.

Against this backdrop, Bihar’s ruling Janata Dal (United), or JDU, and the main opposition, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD); the Samajwadi Party (SP), Jharkhand’s governing Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) as well as Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have decided to contest the polls either in alliance with local parties or on their own.

These parties have contested seats in Bengal in the past without much success. But this time the electoral dynamics are significant because of the inroads BJP has made. Banerjee has branded the BJP as “a party of outsiders” while making efforts to reach out to Hindi-speaking voters. She has promised to set up a Hindi language university and declare two holidays on Chhath Puja.

On Thursday, Jharkhand chief minister Hemant Soren addressed his first rally at Jhargram, a district with a high tribal population. In the adjoining districts, the BJP won the Lok Sabha seats of Purulia, Bishnupur, and Midnapore in 2019. Tribals constitute a sizeable chunk of voters in these seats.

Addressing the audience in Santhali, Soren said the JMM will contest the polls to revive the dream of having a greater Jharkhand for the tribal people. Though Soren targeted the BJP-led government at the Centre, Banerjee, while addressing members of the Hindi-speaking population in Kolkata, took offense.

“What is this? I attended his swearing-in ceremony and offered my support to him and his party. And today he has come to Bengal to field candidates. This is unfair,” she said.

The BJP sees in this a calculated plan. "The chief minister’s reaction was meant for public consumption. She and Soren have an understanding. However, the JMM cannot eat into the votes of the BJP. The TMC has done nothing for development in the tribal belt. Similarly, the local population is also aware that tribal people in Jharkhand got nothing from Soren so far,” said Khagen Murmu, Bengal BJP’s tribal front president and Lok Sabha member from Malda.

With Bengal having a sizeable number of Bihari voters, most of whom live in Kolkata, North 24 Parganas, Howrah, and West Burdwan districts, the JD(U) plans to contest around 60-70 seats. “The number of seats has not been finalized yet. Our national general secretary Gulam Rasool Baliyawi is camping in Bengal. The BJP is our ally in Bihar but in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Delhi, and Karnataka, we have contested against each other. Bengal is not an unknown territory for us. We want to expand our base and project Nitish Kumar’s Bihar model,” said JD (U) leader Rajeev Ranjan.

The JD(U) wants to contest seats in Malda and Murshidabad, where Muslim voters are in majority. All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) headed by Asaduddin Owaisi also plans to contest seats in the two districts.

AIMIM’s entry is expected to indirectly help the BJP by splitting Muslim votes that go to the TMC.

Muslims accounted for the state’s 27.01% population, according to the 2011 census.

The RJD said it will contest with an anti-BJP agenda. “My colleagues and I will reach Kolkata on Saturday. Our only goal is to defeat the BJP. We will hold a workers’ meeting on January 31 to review ground reality. We are supposed to meet either Mamata Banerjee or her nephew Abhishek Banerjee on February 1,” said RJD leader Shyam Rajak.

Kiranmoy Nanda, who served as minister in the Jyoti Basu and Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee governments when his West Bengal Socialist Party merged with the SP, said he is in Kolkata to take stock of the political scenario. “We are yet to decide where our candidates will be fielded. We are not part of the Left alliance,” said Nanda.

Barrackpore Lok Sabha member Arjun Singh, who formed the TMC’s Hindi cell before joining the BJP in 2019, said no regional party can make any difference. “This is a direct contest between the BJP and TMC. The TMC’s efforts to woo Hindi-speaking voters will not work. Personally, I think the JD(U) may opt-out of the polls at a later stage.”

Maharashtra’s ruling Shiv Sena, which Banerjee often describes as her national ally, announced on January 17 that it will contest the Bengal polls. The Sena will field candidates from at least 100 seats.

Chief minister Uddhav Thackeray, his son, Aditya Thackeray, Anil Desai, and Sanjay Raut will campaign in the state, Ashoke Sarkar, the Sena’s general secretary in Bengal said.

Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader Md Salim said the RJD and NCP are part of the broad alliance of 16 Left and non-Left parties. “Bihar’s Loktantrik Janata Dal has announced that it will support the Left. The SP, however, is out of our alliance.”

A TMC leader, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said no matter how many are in the fray, this is a contest between the BJP and the TMC. “The presence of the regional parties can only cause damage to the BJP. Voters who are not looking for a change in government may support the regional parties.”

Political experts feel that the TMC will benefit from the voices of the regional parties and that will matter more than the votes they get in the bi-polar election.

“When leaders of RJD, SP or JMM campaign in Bengal they will speak exclusively against the BJP and that will add a new political voice to the TMC’s advantage. The Left and Congress are campaigning against both BJP and TMC, which does not send a clear message to all voters,” said Kolkata-based political science professor and election analyst Udayan Bandopadhyay.