Big change in energy mix needed to achieve net-zero emissions in 2060s: IEA - Hindustan Times
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Big change in energy mix needed to achieve net-zero emissions in 2060s: IEA

ByJayashree Nandi
Feb 09, 2021 12:37 PM IST

Energy demand in 2040 should fall nearly 30% below the level projected based on current policies with a complete switch from traditional biomass-based energy, says a new report

A new report on India’s energy scenario has flagged that the country will have to adopt big changes in its energy mix to be able to transition to net-zero emissions by the mid-2060s.

Representational image. (Reuters)
Representational image. (Reuters)

Net-zero emissions means that any greenhouse gas emissions are balanced by absorbing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere. Several countries, including the United States, China and members of the European Union have already announced plans to achieve “net-zero” emissions in the coming decades.

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To achieve net-zero emissions by the 2060s, India’s energy sector will need a profound transformation, the India Energy Outlook of International Energy Agency has said.

Energy demand in 2040 should fall nearly 30% below the level projected based on current policies with a complete switch from traditional biomass-based energy. India will have to shift away from coal and solar PV will have to take up coal’s share of electricity generation a full decade ahead of what current policies would ensure.

Also Read | Study shows Covid-19 pandemic is accelerating the end of fossil power generation

Oil demand will have to plateau by the end of the 2020s as the share of alternative fuels in road transport—electricity, gas and bioenergy will have to rise. Together, these alternative fuels will have to meet 35% of road transport demand by 2040.

Fossil fuels will have to account for less than 60% of primary energy demand by 2040 while traditional use of biomass must fall to zero by 2030, as clean cooking goals are fully achieved, the report said.

India’s energy consumption has more than doubled since 2000, propelled by the growing population and rapid economic growth. Over 900 million citizens have gained an electrical connection in less than two decades according to the report. But over 80% of India’s energy needs are still met by three fuels: coal, oil and solid biomass.

Big change in energy mix needed to achieve net-zero emissions in 2060s: IEA
Big change in energy mix needed to achieve net-zero emissions in 2060s: IEA

Oil consumption and imports have grown rapidly due to rising vehicle ownership and road transport use. Biomass, primarily fuelwood, makes up a declining share of the energy mix, but is still widely used as a cooking fuel. Despite recent success in expanding coverage of LPG in rural areas, 660 million Indians have not fully switched to clean cooking fuels, the report flagged.

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted India’s energy use with an estimated fall of about 5% in the country’s energy demand in 2020 due to lockdowns with coal and oil use suffering the biggest falls.

The pandemic has also hit investment in the energy sector, which fell by an estimated 15% in 2020.

On the brighter side, the report said solar power is set for explosive growth in India, matching coal’s share in the Indian power generation mix within two decades. Presently, solar accounts for less than 4% of India’s electricity generation, and coal close to 70%. By 2040, they should converge in the low 30%s, driven by India’s policy ambitions particularly the target to reach 450GW of renewable capacity by 2030 and cost-competitiveness of solar, which out-competes existing coal-fired plants. Coal’s hold over India’s power sector is loosening, with the industry accounting for most of the increase in coal demand upto 2040.

The report, however, has warned that India’s combined import bill for fossil fuels like oil is likely to triple over the next two decades. “Domestic production of oil and gas continues to fall behind consumption trends and net dependence on imported oil rises above 90% by 2040, up from 75% today. This continued reliance on imported fuels creates vulnerabilities to price cycles and volatility as well as possible disruptions to supply,” it said.

“India has made remarkable progress in recent years, bringing electricity connections to hundreds of millions of people and impressively scaling up the use of renewable energy, particularly solar. What our new report makes clear is the tremendous opportunity for India to successfully meet the aspirations of its citizens without following the high-carbon pathway that other economies have pursued in the past. The energy policy successes of the Indian government to date make me very optimistic about its ability to meet the challenges ahead in terms of energy security and sustainability,” said Faith Birol, executive director, IEA.

“IEA’s India Energy Outlook 2021 once again highlights that emerging economies such as India are at the forefront of the global energy transition. In 2010, India had less than 20 megawatts (MW) of solar. Today, India offers one of the largest renewable energy markets operating on market principles. Transitions in energy efficiency, sustainable mobility and sustainable cooling are also underway. India now needs to focus on reducing the cost of finance for clean energy projects, providing access to capital to finance distributed clean energy systems, driving capital to help small and medium industries become energy-efficient, and exploring innovative financing models for R&D for disruptive technologies like green hydrogen to further accelerate the energy transition,” added Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, Council on Energy, Environment and Water.

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