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The Putinisation of central Europe

The Economist
Jan 26, 2025 08:00 AM IST

Austria could soon get its most extreme chancellor since the 1940s

HOW CONCERNED should Europe be at the rise of Herbert Kickl, the leader of Austria’s hard-right Freedom Party, the FPö? Following the collapse of attempts by the country’s centrist politicians to keep him out of power after his party came top at an election last September (though with only 29% of the vote), Mr Kickl now seems likely to become chancellor. The FPö has been in government before, as a junior partner. This time, it looks as though Mr Kickl will get the top job. That is bad news for the country: he has called for a “Fortress Austria” free from asylum-seekers and employs rhetoric with Nazi overtones. And it consolidates a worrying pattern of Russia-sympathisers gaining power across central Europe.

Herbert Kickl, leader and top candidate of right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPOe) attends a TV debate at the parliament after exit poll numbers were announced in Vienna on September 29, 2024, during Austria's general election. Austria's far right FPOe was ahead of the ruling conservatives in Sunday's national vote, according to projections published by public broadcaster ORF, setting them up for a historic win. (AFP) PREMIUM
Herbert Kickl, leader and top candidate of right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPOe) attends a TV debate at the parliament after exit poll numbers were announced in Vienna on September 29, 2024, during Austria's general election. Austria's far right FPOe was ahead of the ruling conservatives in Sunday's national vote, according to projections published by public broadcaster ORF, setting them up for a historic win. (AFP)

Mr Kickl may not get everything he wants from a coalition. With only 31% of the seats in parliament, he now hopes to form a government with the support of the centre-right People’s Party (the öVP), which refused to go into coalition under his leadership until its attempts to construct an alternative failed. It is now up to the öVP to see if a coalition agreement can be struck. The hope is that some of Mr Kickl’s more extreme positions can be negotiated away. If not, the öVP should refuse to go into government with him. That would probably prompt a fresh election, in which the Freedom Party, polls suggest, would do even better. But that may shock the centrist parties, who would still together have more votes, into trying once again to form a moderate governing coalition.

One possible conclusion is that Mr Kickl’s elevation is a harbinger of far-right advances in Germany, which faces an election in February. In fact, the two countries are very different. The FPö has taken part in five national governments, the first as far back as 1983, and in many more state ones. The hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which polling suggests is on for its best-ever national-election result of around 20%, has never been included in any federal or state government, and the “firewall” that excludes it shows no sign of breaking. The AfD came top in the election in the state of Thuringia in 2024, but the other parties kept it out of power.

The real worry is that Austria exemplifies the Putinisation of central Europe. First came Viktor Orban, the strongman of Hungary. Mr Orban has repeatedly delayed (though not successfully blocked) European sanctions on Russia, refuses to let weapons destined for Ukraine pass through Hungary, and denounces Brussels and pro-democracy outfits like George Soros’s Open Society Foundation. He has a like-minded neighbour in Robert Fico, prime minister of Slovakia. And later this year Andrej Babis, another Eurosceptical pro-Russian could return to power in the Czech Republic. The parties are already discussing how to maximise their collective influence. It does not help that, under the hard right, corruption may well flourish.

The contrast with those former Soviet-bloc countries on or near the front line of Russia’s war is striking. Poland and the Baltic states see Vladimir Putin for exactly what he is: a murderous revanchist who invades his neighbours, sabotages infrastructure across Europe and interferes with democratic elections everywhere. Those a little farther away seem content to gloss over his enormities, and to applaud him instead as a defender of “traditional” values and a rival to Western institutions in which they do not quite sit comfortably. Mr Kickl’s FPö, for instance, is an official sister party to Mr Putin’s United Russia.

Austria is a small country of 9m. It is not a member of NATO. The drift to the hard right there matters a lot less than it would in France or Germany. But it still matters. As Donald Trump prepares to take office and the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, European unity is needed more than ever. Another leader bent on fighting Brussels and opposing collective action in the face of autocracy will delight only the autocrats.

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