Can milk production be climate-proof?

This article is authored by Dr AY Rajendra, CEO, Animal Nutrition Business, Godrej Agrovet Limited.

India’s dairy sector must urgently build resilience to climate change, with predicted El Niño conditions threatening a deficient monsoon that could prolong the scorching summer heatwave, exacerbate heat stress on the country’s cattle and, in turn, sap milk yields.

Milk (Representative Photo/iStock)

India’s official Meteorological Department (IMD) expects rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season to be around 90% of the long-period average. Crucially, however, it has forecast a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon.

Heat stress has already become an annual drain on India’s dairy productivity, with increasingly intense summers taking a toll on cattle health and milk yields. But where the monsoon would typically bring much-needed relief, El Niño conditions mean any respite this year could be delayed, limited and short-lived.

Heatwaves, which have already pushed temperatures to extreme levels across large parts of the country, are therefore expected to persist. Some regions could even face drought conditions.

The impact of such extreme weather on India’s broader agricultural ecosystem is well documented. Yet its implications for milk production often receive less attention despite the critical role dairy plays in the country’s food system.

India is currently the world’s largest milk producer. Yet despite this notable achievement, the country’s milk yields per animal remain among the lowest globally.

Cows in India yield an average of 4.87 kg of milk per day, roughly two-thirds of the global average of 7.18 kg per day.

High temperatures, which place significant physiological stress on cattle, have a direct impact on milk production. Drought conditions, for instance, can reduce milk yields by more than 25%. Heat stress, unless effectively mitigated, is, therefore, likely to exacerbate an already challenging productivity scenario.

While India-specific estimates remain limited, global evidence from El Niño-induced droughts in smallholder dairy systems shows that milk production can decline by as much as 25–30%, alongside a contraction in livestock holdings. Given the structural similarities of India’s largely smallholder-driven dairy sector, these findings are highly relevant in understanding the potential scale and nature of impact.

In India, however, the effect of such climate shocks is not only biological but also behavioural. As pressures on feed, fodder and water intensify, farmers tend to prioritise productive animals, delay herd expansion and become more cautious in their investment decisions — amplifying the overall impact on milk output and sectoral growth.

Beyond immediate yield loss, El Niño impacts operate at multiple levels. At the animal level, heat stress reduces milk output, impairs reproductive cycles and weakens overall health. At the farm level, lower availability of feed, fodder and water disrupts productivity. At a broader level, these stresses influence herd size decisions and investment behaviour across the sector. With El Niño events expected to become more frequent and intense as the climate crisis accelerates, equipping farmers to adapt is no longer optional. It is essential. The solutions, fortunately, can be found in science. And it all starts with feeding.

Nutrition and hydration are fundamental to cattle productivity.

As heat stress rises, feed intake declines, resulting in a loss of body weight and body condition. Feed consumption begins to decrease at air temperatures of around 25-26°C in lactating cows and falls more rapidly above 30°C. At temperatures of 40°C, feed intake may decline by as much as 40%.

Compounding this is a critical but often overlooked constraint — water.

For every litre of milk produced, a cow requires approximately 4–5 litres of water. In many rural areas, as water sources become more distant and availability declines, farmers are forced to make difficult choices: maintain herd size, reduce feeding, or compromise on milk output.

When this fundamental requirement is not met, the impact is cascading — affecting not just milk yield, but also animal health, reproductive efficiency and ultimately farmer incomes.

This reduction in feed consumption and the resulting loss of body condition do not merely affect milk yields. They also weaken immunity, leaving animals more vulnerable to a host of illnesses and diseases that can further compromise productivity.

Scientifically formulated compound feeds can help bridge these nutritional gaps.

Such feeds are specifically designed to account for the heat-induced decline in appetite experienced by cattle during periods of elevated temperatures. They are nutrient-dense, ensuring animals receive the nutrition they require despite consuming lower quantities of feed.

These feeds are also formulated to generate less metabolic heat during digestion, helping to prevent a further rise in the core body temperature of already heat-stressed animals.

Another important shift is from volume to efficiency. In climate-stressed conditions, the question is no longer how much animals are fed, but how effectively that feed is converted into milk.

Balanced feed formulations can compensate for poor-quality fodder, while nutritional stabilisers can help maintain nutrient intake even when grazing conditions deteriorate.

It also plays a critical role in sustaining reproductive performance, which is often compromised under heat stress and nutritional deficiency.

Getting nutrition right matters because it delivers benefits that extend far beyond higher milk yields. Better nutrition also strengthens immunity, improves animal health and enhances overall productivity.

Of course, nutritional interventions alone are not enough. Their impact must be complemented by broader farm management practices.

Heat stress not only affects yield but also disrupts reproductive cycles, often extending breeding intervals and reducing overall herd productivity.

To address this, farmers must first mitigate heat exposure through better housing — shaded areas, well-ventilated sheds or tree cover can significantly reduce thermal stress.

Equally important is ensuring adequate water access and providing balanced nutrition supported by essential electrolytes, which help animals cope better with heat stress.

A farmer may own genetically superior cattle, but those animals will never achieve their full production potential without proper care and management. This is where farm management practices can make a substantial difference.

Poor hygiene, inadequate housing, limited access to veterinary services and insufficient training in animal care can all undermine productivity.

The consequences can range from delayed breeding and poor reproductive performance to mastitis, metabolic disorders and other health challenges that directly affect milk yields.

Strengthening basic farm practices — from vaccination programmes and clean milking to improved housing and hygienic storage — remains essential to sustaining productivity and reducing losses. The adoption of infrastructure such as chilling tanks and proper milk storage systems can further enhance quality and minimise wastage.

Knowledge transfer will be key. Digital extension services and demonstration farms can play a critical role in helping farmers learn and adopt best practices through hands-on experience and practical guidance.

El Niño conditions often result in sporadic and erratic rainfall patterns, creating favourable conditions for the spread of infections and diseases among livestock populations. Robust veterinary support systems, combined with the immunity-enhancing benefits of proper nutrition, can help prevent outbreaks and minimise losses.

At the same time, breeding and genetic improvement programmes can help develop more heat-tolerant and productive animals, while emerging technologies can provide farmers with real-time insights into herd health and performance.

Industry and government both have a critical role to play in accelerating the adoption of these measures.

Industry can drive awareness through demonstrations that showcase both products and best practices, helping farmers understand the tangible benefits of modern approaches to dairy management.

Government, meanwhile, can continue to support adoption through targeted policies, improved access to credit and financial incentives that lower the barriers to investment.

To its credit, policy is already playing an enabling role. Initiatives such as the Rashtriya Gokul Mission, which supports breed improvement and conservation, and the Pashu Aushadhi initiative, which seeks to improve access to affordable and quality veterinary medicines, represent important steps in the right direction.

Building resilience has become imperative.

Dairy has established itself as an indispensable component of the Indian diet and a crucial source of income for millions of rural households. As climate change intensifies, safeguarding and improving productivity will become increasingly important.

Cracking the productivity puzzle is, therefore, about more than increasing milk yields.

It is about building a system that can withstand climate shocks while sustaining growth, protecting farmer livelihoods and ensuring national food security.

In an era of increasing climate uncertainty, making milk production more resilient is not just desirable — it is essential.

(The views expressed are personal)

This article is authored by Dr AY Rajendra, CEO, Animal Nutrition Business, Godrej Agrovet Limited.