E-Paper
60% chance of ‘below normal’ rains: Skymet
In April, Skymet Weather had forecast that monsoon is likely to be ‘normal’ or ’above normal’ for the third consecutive year and monsoon rain from June to September is likely to be 103% of the long period average of 880.6 mm.
Skymet Weather Services, a private weather forecasting company, in an updated forecast on Monday said that there is a 60% chance of ‘below normal’ rains during monsoon at around 94% of the long period average (LPA) with an error margin of +/- 4%.
In April, Skymet Weather had forecast that monsoon is likely to be ‘normal’ or ’above normal’ for the third consecutive year and monsoon rain from June to September is likely to be 103% of the long period average of 880.6 mm.
The monsoon this year had a timely onset and made a good start with June ending above normal at 110% of the long period average (LPA). July, however, was marred with a pronged break till July 11. Therefore, the month finished with below normal rainfall at 93% of LPA.
June and July ended with 110% and 93% of LPA against Skymet’s forecast of 106% and 97%, respectively. There was a ‘break monsoon’ phase during the first fortnight of August, leading to a monsoon deficiency of 9% till the middle of the month.
“In terms of geographical risk, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha, Kerala and northeast India are likely to be hit with deficient rains. The chance of drought over Gujarat and West Rajasthan appears imminent. However, the spatial distribution of rainfall over the rainfed areas of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh has been adequate. Accordingly, the food production in the agri-bowl of central parts may not be stressed and skewed,” Skymet Weather said in a statement on Monday.
There is a 9% rain deficiency over the country with Gujarat recording 47% deficiency, Odisha 31%, Kerala 28%, Manipur 58%, Arunachal Pradesh 25%, Assam 20% and Nagaland 23%. Sub-division wise, northwest India has registered a 11% deficiency, central India 11% deficiency, east India 11% deficiency and northeast India 4% surplus.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its long range forecast issued on June 1, projected that monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104 % of Long Period Average (LPA)). Quantitatively, the monsoon season over the country as a whole is likely to be 101% of the LPA with a model error of ± 4%. IMD officials said monsoon seasonal rainfall may be close to normal.
“As of now, August rainfall is likely to be below normal. There may be some rain towards the end of August but we don’t expect the deficit to be met. The models are indicating normal rains in September. Overall monsoon may be near normal or slightly below normal,” DS Pai, head of climate and research services at IMD Pune, said.
Normally, the monsoon trough comes down to the plains when low pressure systems develop over the Bay of Bengal. “This time, fewer low-pressure areas formed — two against the normal of four — and they were not that active. They moved towards Uttar Pradesh and weakened abruptly. This led to breaks during monsoon and less rain overall. The monsoon trough shifted northwards,” Pai explained.
IMD considers 96 to 104% of LPA to be ‘normal’, 90 to 96% in ‘below normal’ category and less than 90% in ‘deficient’ category.
