Above normal monsoon rain likely, below normal over East and North East: IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its second stage of Long Range Forecast of southwest monsoon on Monday

The monsoon rainfall is expected to be “above normal” at 106% of long period average with a model error of +/-4%, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its second stage of Long Range Forecast of southwest monsoon on Monday.

The monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is expected to record above normal rain. (File Photo)

There is a 32% probability that monsoon will be above normal (105 to 110% of LPA) and a 29% probability that monsoon rainfall will be excess (over 110% of LPA), IMD said. The LPA for the season as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.

There is likely to be normal rainfall over northwest India (92 to 108% of LPA); below normal rain over east and northeast India (<94% of LPA); above normal rainfall over central India (106% of LPA); above normal rainfall over peninsular India (106% of LPA).

Most importantly, the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is expected to record above normal rain (106%) of LPA.

“We are sticking to our earlier forecast of above normal rain and there is a very good confidence around 61% probability that monsoon will be above normal or excess. So, we can expect good rains this year,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.

Last year monsoon was “below normal” at 94.4% of LPA. IMD had however forecast a “normal” monsoon last year at 96% of LPA with error margin of +/-4%. Before that, 2022 monsoon was “above normal” at 106% of LPA; 2021 recorded a “normal” monsoon at 99% of LPA and 2020 monsoon was again “above normal” at 109% of LPA.