Above normal rain in Peninsular India likely in November | Latest News India - Hindustan Times
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Above normal rain in Peninsular India likely in November

Nov 03, 2021 08:41 AM IST

Normally, during La Nina conditions, rainfall is normal or below normal during the northeast monsoon in southern Peninsular India. But this time rainfall is expected to be above normal because of the favourable location of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Rainfall in November is likely to be above normal (>122% of LPA) in South Peninsular India, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD). The LPA (Long Period Average of rainfall over 50 years) in the region in November from 1961 to 2010 has been about 117.46 mm.

The changes in the Sea Surface Temperature conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to influence the Indian climate. (AFP File Photo)
The changes in the Sea Surface Temperature conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to influence the Indian climate. (AFP File Photo)

The spatial distribution forecast suggests normal to above normal rainfall in most parts of South Peninsular India. Below normal to normal rainfall is likely in parts of north, northwest, and central India. Normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely in the remaining parts of the country, IMD said on Tuesday.

Presently, La Niña conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean. The latest global model forecasts indicate the La Niña conditions are likely to continue until March 2022 and neutral IOD conditions during the upcoming seasons, IMD said. Normally, during La Nina conditions, rainfall is normal or below normal during the northeast monsoon in southern Peninsular India. But this time rainfall is expected to be above normal because of the favourable location of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). “MJO is near Africa now. It will move towards the Indian Ocean. With this the cyclonic potential will be more in the Indian Ocean region and easterly waves will strengthen. Therefore, we are expecting above-normal rain over South Peninsula,” said DS Pai, who heads climate research and services at IMD, Pune.

Due to the impact of La Nina, minimum and maximum temperatures are likely to be considerably below normal (by 1 to 2 degrees) in most parts of the country including northwest India. “Our extended range forecast indicates below normal temperatures over most parts of the country,” Pai said.

La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation--winds, pressure and rainfall. It usually has the opposite impacts on weather and climate as El Niño, which is the warm phase of the so-called El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Also Read: Delhi’s AQI to hover around 300 for the next few days, says IMD

ENSO has a major influence on weather and climate patterns such as heavy rains, floods, and drought. In India, El Nino is associated with drought or weak monsoon. La Nina is associated with strong monsoon and above-average rains and colder winters.

The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days on average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Its location and amplitude strongly modulate the intensity of tropical convection and features like low-pressure systems over the north Indian Ocean.

The changes in the Sea Surface Temperature conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to influence the Indian climate. IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins, it said.

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