After a lull, monsoon likely to pick up over north India

Rainfall activity is likely to increase over Northwest India with heavy to very heavy rainfall likely between June 28 and June 30, the IMD said

New Delhi: The monsoon, delayed by around a week at this point in time (with June rainfall being significantly deficient), is expected to pick up over north India, meteorologists said on Wednesday.

Commuters pass on a road during rain in Kanpur on Wednesday. (ANI)

Rainfall activity is likely to increase over Northwest India with heavy to very heavy rainfall likely between June 28 and June 30, the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday.

Private weather forecaster, Skymet Weather said the monsoon is likely to arrive in Delhi over the weekend. “We can expect heavy to very heavy rain over northwest India from June 28 onwards. We expect that monsoon will make onset over Delhi also during that period ,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather. IMD has not indicated when the monsoon will arrive over Delhi.

The monsoon is presently delayed by about a week compared its normal trajectory. It went into a lull for around 9 days after June 11. There is a 19% rain deficiency over the country with 57% rain deficiency over northwest India; 23% deficiency over central India; 16% over east and northeast India and 9% excess over peninsular India.

Delay in monsoon led to further intensification of extreme heat over northwest India in June and caused at least 100 deaths. Northwest India recorded severe heat wave and warm night conditions almost throughout June.

“After its revival, monsoon will progress further and cover whole country by 5 July. Active monsoon phase is expected in the next 2-3 weeks with heavy rains along west coast and north India. High probability of extreme rains and flooding in north India,” M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences wrote on X.

IMD has issued an orange alert for isolated very heavy rainfall over Uttarakhand during June 28 to 30; East Uttar Pradesh during June 28 to 29; and over Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh on June 29 to 30.

Maximum temperatures are expected to fall by 3 to 5 degree C over northwest India as a result.

HT reported on June 22 that monsoon is expected to pick up over northwest India and cover most parts of the region between June 27 and July 3, according to the IMD’s extended range forecast.

The monsoon delivers nearly 70% of India’s rain and is the lifeblood of its economy. As much as 51% of India’s farmed area accounting for 40% of production is rain-fed and 47% of the population is dependent on agriculture for livelihood.

Consistent and moderate amounts of rain — as opposed to heavy or very heavy rainfall days — is thus crucial for the country’s agriculture and rural sector. Good rains can help keep prices of staples such as sugar, pulses, rice and vegetables under control, in turn restraining the sticky inflation problem.